Brazil's COVID-19 Epicenter in Manaus: How Much of the Population Has Already Been Exposed and Are Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2?
Amazon
Coronavirus
Herd immunity
Immunity loss
Manaus
Reinfection
SEIR
SEIRS
Journal
Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities
ISSN: 2196-8837
Titre abrégé: J Racial Ethn Health Disparities
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101628476
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2022
12 2022
Historique:
received:
19
01
2021
accepted:
06
09
2021
revised:
31
05
2021
pubmed:
1
10
2021
medline:
8
11
2022
entrez:
30
9
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Is Brazil's COVID-19 epicenter really approaching herd immunity? A recent study estimated that in October 2020 three-quarters of the population of Manaus (the capital of the largest state in the Brazilian Amazon) had contact with SARS-CoV-2. We show that 46% of the Manaus population having had contact with SARS-CoV-2 at that time is a more plausible estimate, and that Amazonia is still far from herd immunity. The second wave of COVID-19 is now evident in Manaus. We predict that the pandemic of COVID-19 will continue throughout 2021, given the duration of naturally acquired immunity of only 240 days and the slow pace of vaccination. Manaus has a large percentage of the population that is susceptible (35 to 45% as of May 17, 2021). Against this backdrop, measures to restrict urban mobility and social isolation are still necessary, such as the closure of schools and universities, since the resumption of these activities in 2020 due to the low attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 was the main trigger for the second wave in Manaus.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34590244
doi: 10.1007/s40615-021-01148-8
pii: 10.1007/s40615-021-01148-8
pmc: PMC8480276
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2098-2104Informations de copyright
© 2021. W. Montague Cobb-NMA Health Institute.
Références
McCoy T, Traiano H. In the Brazilian Amazon, a sharp drop in coronavirus sparks questions over collective immunity. The Washington Post, 24 August 2020. https://bityl.co/6tsx
Buss, LF. et al. COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon. medRxiv. Preprint. 2020; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787
Buss LF, et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science. 2021;371:288–92. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe9728 .
doi: 10.1126/science.abe9728
pubmed: 33293339
Ferrante L, et al. Brazil’s policies condemn Amazonia to a second wave of COVID-19. Nat Med. 2020;26:1315. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1026-x .
doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1026-x
pubmed: 32770168
FVS. Boletim Diário Covid-19 no Amazonas 12 January 2021. Manaus, Brazil: Fundação de Vigilância Sanitária; 2021; https://bityl.co/5GT9
Sabino EC, et al. Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence. Lancet. 2021;397:452–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5 .
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5
pubmed: 33515491
pmcid: 7906746
Adam D. The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID19 how epidemiologists rushed to model the coronavirus pandemic (tech. rep.). Nature. 2020;580:316–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6 .
doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6
pubmed: 32242115
Bakker M. et al. Effect of social distancing measures in the New York City metropolitan area Main findings. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston, MA; 2020. https://lkdin.io/3ID5
Li R, et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Science. 2020;368:489–93. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221 .
doi: 10.1126/science.abb3221
pubmed: 32179701
pmcid: 7164387
Prem K, et al. The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lanc Pub Health. 2020;5(art):e261-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6 .
doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6
Trawicki MB. Deterministic SEIRS epidemic model for modeling vital dynamics, vaccinations, and temporary immunity. Mathem. 2020;5:7. https://doi.org/10.3390/math5010007 .
doi: 10.3390/math5010007
Bjørnstad ON, et al. The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics. Nat Meth. 2020;17:557–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-020-0856-2 .
doi: 10.1038/s41592-020-0856-2
Khyar O, Allali K. Global dynamics of a multi-strain SEIR epidemic model with general incidence rates: application to COVID-19 pandemic. Nonlinear Dyn. 2020;102:489–509. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05929-4 .
doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05929-4
pubmed: 32921921
pmcid: 7478444
Fudolig M, Howard R. The local stability of a modified multi-strain SIR model for emerging viral strains. PLoS ONE. 2020;15(art):e0243408. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243408 .
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243408
pubmed: 33296417
pmcid: 7725381
COVID-19 community mobility reports. 2021. https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
Naveca F, Costa CF. Caracterização genética do SARS-CoV-2 circulante no Estado do Amazonas. Manaus, Brazil: FioCruz/FVS; 2021 https://amz.run/4GZF
Orellana JDY, et al. Explosion in mortality in the Amazonian epicenter of the COVID-19 epidemic. Cadernos de Saúde Pública. 2020;36(art):e00120020. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311x00120020 .
doi: 10.1590/0102-311x00120020
pubmed: 32638881
Hallal P, et al. SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in Brazil: results from two successive nationwide serological household surveys. Lancet Global Health. 2020;8:e1390–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30387-9 .
doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30387-9
pubmed: 32979314
MAVE. Grupo de Métodos Analíticos em Vigilância Epidemiológica (PROCC/Fiocruz e EMAp/FGV), Resumo do Boletim InfoGripe–Semana Epidemiológica (SE) 42. 2020; https://bityl.co/4vT0
FVS. Boletim Diário COVID-19 no Amazonas 19 August 2020. Manaus, Brazil: Fundação de Vigilância Sanitária. 2020; https://bit.ly/2LZJkug
FVS. Boletim Diário COVID-19 no Amazonas 20 December 2020. Manaus, Brazil: Fundação de Vigilância Sanitária. 2020; https://bityl.co/4vSr
FVS. Séries temporais COVID-19 no Amazonas 20 December 2020. Manaus, Brazil: Fundação de Vigilância Sanitária. 2020; https://bit.ly/2M1ScQ7
Ranzani OT, et al. Characterisation of the first 250 000 hospital admissions for COVID-19 in Brazil: a retrospective analysis of nationwide data. Lanc Resp Med. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30560-9 .
doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30560-9
Yang OO, Ibarrondo FJ. Loss of anti–SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in mild COVID-19. N Engl J Med. 2020;383:1697–8. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejmc2027051 .
doi: 10.1056/nejmc2027051
pubmed: 32966713
Lugon P. et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in children and household contacts in a slum in Rio de Janeiro. Pediatrics 2021; 147(5). https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2021-050182
Madera S. et al. Nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in young children do not differ significantly from those in older children and adults. Scientific Reports, 2021; 11:3044. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81934-w
Morais FG. et al. Filtration efficiency of a large set of COVID-19 face masks commonly used in Brazil. Aerosol Sci Technol 2021 https://doi.org/10.1080/02786826.2021.1915466
Ventura D., Reis R. A linha do tempo da estratégia federal de disseminação da COVID-19: Um ataque sem precedentes aos direitos humanos no Brasil. A. Direitos na pandemia mapeamento e análise das normas jurídicas de resposta à covid-19 no Brasil. Centro de Pesquisas e Estudos de Direito Sanitário (CEPEDIS), Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP), Universidade de São Paulo (USP), Boletim no. 10, 2021; pp. 6–31. https://cepedisa.org.br/publicacoes/
Congresso em Foco. Deputados bolsonaristas fizeram campanha contra distanciamento em Manaus. Congresso em Foco. 14 January 2021; https://bityl.co/5GT7
Ramos J. Josué Neto sugere que China criou o coronavírus para lucrar com vacinas. A Crítica. 23 October 2020. https://bityl.co/4iVk
ALEAM Audiência Pública virtual. Assembleia Legislativa do Estado do Amazonas. 2021; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBZQ6BUEDq8&t=647s
Mattoso C et al. Vice do Amazonas diz que política de imunidade de rebanho apoiada por Bolsonaro levou Manaus ao colapso. Folha de São Paulo, 5 May 2021. https://bityl.co/6vHF
National Congress. Parliamentary commission on 25 May 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVZ_ZI0d0MI
Vasconcellos J. CPI mostra vídeo de Mayra Pinheiro defendendo imunidade de rebanho. Correio Braziliense. 25 May 2021. https://bityl.co/76z1
Lindner J; Bolsonaro apostou na imunidade de rebanho’, diz senador Otto Alencar. G1. 31 May 2021. https://bityl.co/772P
Barbara V. The unveiling of Bolsonaro’s supervillain plot is weirdly gripping. The New York Times. 27 May 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/opinion/brazil-covid-inquiry-bolsonaro.html
Brauner JM, et al. Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19. Science. 2021;371:802. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd9338 .
doi: 10.1126/science.abd9338
Amazonas Atual. Sem nova variante, falar em 3ª onda é alarmismo, diz vereador de Manaus. Amazonas atual; 2021. https://amazonasatual.com.br/sem-nova-variante-falar-em-3a-onda-e-alarmismo-diz-vereador-de-manaus/
G1. Aulas presenciais são retomadas em Manaus na segunda-feira. G1. 28 May 2021. https://g1.globo.com/am/amazonas/noticia/2021/05/28/aulas-presenciais-sao-retomadas-em-manaus-na-segunda-feira.ghtml
Valor Econômico. Casos de covid voltam a acelerar em Manaus. Valor Econômico. 10 May 2021. https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2021/05/10/casos-de-covid-voltam-a-acelerar-em-manaus.ghtml
Pacheco K. Aglomerações do Dia das Mães reflete no aumento do número de casos de COVID-19 em Manaus. 28 May 2021. https://www.acritica.com/channels/coronavirus/news/aglomeracoes-do-dia-das-maes-reflete-no-aumento-do-numero-de-casos-de-covid-19-em-manaus