Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults.
Adults
Children
Epidemiology
Global estimates
Incidence
Prevalence
Type 1 diabetes
Journal
Diabetologia
ISSN: 1432-0428
Titre abrégé: Diabetologia
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 0006777
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 2021
12 2021
Historique:
received:
11
02
2021
accepted:
15
07
2021
pubmed:
3
10
2021
medline:
1
4
2022
entrez:
2
10
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region. Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs. Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world's population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%. Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34599655
doi: 10.1007/s00125-021-05571-8
pii: 10.1007/s00125-021-05571-8
pmc: PMC8563635
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2741-2750Subventions
Organisme : World Health Organization
ID : 001
Pays : International
Organisme : CGH CDC HHS
ID : U2G GH001235
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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