Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model.
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Switzerland
mathematical model
Journal
F1000Research
ISSN: 2046-1402
Titre abrégé: F1000Res
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101594320
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2020
2020
Historique:
accepted:
09
12
2020
entrez:
12
10
2021
pubmed:
25
6
2020
medline:
14
10
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The recent lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Switzerland causes uncertainty about the future of the epidemic. We developed a compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and projected the course of the epidemic until the end of year 2020 under various scenarios. The model was age-structured with three categories: children (0-17), adults (18-64) and seniors (65- years). Lifting all restrictions according to the plans disclosed by the Swiss federal authorities by mid-May resulted in a rapid rebound in the epidemic, with the peak expected in July. Measures equivalent to at least 76% reduction in all contacts were able to eradicate the epidemic; a 54% reduction in contacts could keep the intensive care unit occupancy under the critical level and delay the next wave until October. In scenarios where strong contact reductions were only applied in selected age groups, the epidemic could not be suppressed, resulting in an increased risk of a rebound in July, and another stronger wave in September. Future interventions need to cover all age groups to keep the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic under control.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34631035
doi: 10.12688/f1000research.24497.2
pmc: PMC8477351
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
646Informations de copyright
Copyright: © 2021 Estill J et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
No competing interests were disclosed.
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