Mathematical modelling for assessing the impact of intervention strategies on HIV/AIDS high risk group population dynamics.

The global economic importance of HIV/AIDS and inadequacy of the literature dealing with deterministic model on control strategy of HIV/AIDS that captures factors responsible for the spread of the disease in low income country is one among other factors responsible for the ill management of the disease in an endemic population. Thus, this study focuses on a novel deterministic mathematical model to assess the impact of intervention strategies on high risk group with drug quitters special case and drug users who are sexually active (duality case). Backward bifurcation, positivity of the model variables, sensitivity analysis, global stability of DFE and EEP are used to investigate the qualitative structure of the model. It was established that the duality effect of the force of infection spur by intravenous drug users who sexually active (IDUSA-special case) are responsible for backward (IDUSA) in the endemic population. Sensitivity analysis on IDU and MSM group shows that 20% decrease of the susceptible population of both classes will attenuate the transmission dynamics by 7.4% and 2.6% of the MSM and IDU class respectively. Further simulation, using demographic and epidemiological data available in Nigeria shows that the disease burden reduces with universal strategy than combined strategy.

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Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The authors declare no conflict of interest.