Spatio-temporal patterns of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysis.
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
14 10 2021
14 10 2021
Historique:
received:
21
01
2021
accepted:
06
09
2021
entrez:
15
10
2021
pubmed:
16
10
2021
medline:
27
1
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Pneumonia is one of the top 10 diseases by morbidity in Bhutan. This study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends and risk factors of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan. A multivariable Zero-inflated Poisson regression model using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was undertaken to quantify associations of age, sex, altitude, rainfall, maximum temperature and relative humidity with monthly pneumonia incidence and to identify the underlying spatial structure of the data. Overall childhood pneumonia incidence was 143.57 and 10.01 per 1000 persons over 108 months of observation in children aged < 5 years and 5-14 years, respectively. Children < 5 years or male sex were more likely to develop pneumonia than those 5-14 years and females. Each 1 °C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a 1.3% (95% (credible interval [CrI] 1.27%, 1.4%) increase in pneumonia cases. Each 10% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 1.2% (95% CrI 1.1%, 1.4%) reduction in the incidence of pneumonia. Pneumonia decreased by 0.3% (CrI 0.26%, 0.34%) every month. There was no statistical spatial clustering after accounting for the covariates. Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity can partly be explained by the association of pneumonia risk to climatic factors including maximum temperature and relative humidity.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34650108
doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-99137-8
pii: 10.1038/s41598-021-99137-8
pmc: PMC8516968
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
20422Commentaires et corrections
Type : ErratumIn
Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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