Association between early childhood lower respiratory tract infections and subsequent asthma.

We examined the relationship between recurrent lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in young children and subsequent childhood asthma outcomes. Retrospective cohort study using 2009-2017 Colorado All Payer Claims Database to assess 0- to 2-year-old children with visits due to LRTI and acute gastroenteritis (AGE). The primary exposure was number of LRTI visits prior to 2 years of age. Children with AGE served as the no LRTI comparator group. The primary outcome was incident asthma, defined by ICD-9 (490.XX) or ICD-10 (J45.9XX) codes, in the same children between 3 and 9 years of age. Multivariable accelerated failure time (AFT) models were used to estimate the effect of LRTI visits on median time to asthma diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses were performed using more conservative asthma diagnostic criteria and with hospitalized children only. Of 38,441 eligible subjects, 32,729 had ≥1 LRTI and 5,712 had AGE (no LRTI) between 0 and 2 years of age. Children with ≥3 LRTI visits had an 80% decrease in median time to asthma diagnosis relative to those with AGE visits only (time ratio [TR] 0.2; 95% CI 0.16, 0.24). Children with ≥3 LRTI hospitalizations had a 98% reduction in median time to asthma diagnosis relative to those with AGE hospitalizations only (TR 0.02; 95% CI 0.01, 0.07). History of atopy, wheezing, and family history of asthma documented prior to 2 years of age were also associated with earlier asthma diagnosis. Recurrent LRTIs, especially LRTI hospitalizations, before 2 years of age are associated with earlier diagnosis of pediatric asthma.