A MULTIVARIATE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGE-POINT MODEL OF OPIOID OVERDOSE DEATHS IN OHIO.
Bayesian
Multivariate conditional autoregressive
change point
spatial rates
Journal
The annals of applied statistics
ISSN: 1932-6157
Titre abrégé: Ann Appl Stat
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101479511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2021
Sep 2021
Historique:
entrez:
1
11
2021
pubmed:
2
11
2021
medline:
2
11
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Ohio is one of the states most impacted by the opioid epidemic and experienced the second highest age-adjusted fatal drug overdose rate in 2017. Initially it was believed prescription opioids were driving the opioid crisis in Ohio. However, as the epidemic evolved, opioid overdose deaths due to fentanyl have drastically increased. In this work we develop a Bayesian multivariate spatiotemporal model for Ohio county overdose death rates from 2007 to 2018 due to different types of opioids. The log-odds are assumed to follow a spatially varying change point regression model. By assuming the regression coefficients are a multivariate conditional autoregressive process, we capture spatial dependence within each drug type and also dependence across drug types. The proposed model allows us to not only study spatiotemporal trends in overdose death rates but also to detect county-level shifts in these trends over time for various types of opioids.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34721750
doi: 10.1214/20-aoas1415
pmc: PMC8553088
mid: NIHMS1748688
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1329-1342Subventions
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R21 DA045236
Pays : United States
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