Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020.
COVID
Coronavirus
Epidemiology
Exposure
Fatality
Prevalence
SARS-CoV-2
Severity
Journal
Global epidemiology
ISSN: 2590-1133
Titre abrégé: Glob Epidemiol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101759263
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2021
Nov 2021
Historique:
received:
12
07
2021
revised:
31
10
2021
accepted:
19
11
2021
entrez:
29
11
2021
pubmed:
30
11
2021
medline:
30
11
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17-14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59-0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95-46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21-11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73-19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10-4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30-9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12-179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52-35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60-70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34841244
doi: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068
pii: S2590-1133(21)00022-5
pmc: PMC8609676
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
100068Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
We declare no competing interests.
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