Establishment and validation of prognosis model for patients with cerebral contusion.
Cerebral edema
Nomogram
Prognosis
Traumatic brain injury;cerebral contusion
Journal
BMC neurology
ISSN: 1471-2377
Titre abrégé: BMC Neurol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
29 Nov 2021
29 Nov 2021
Historique:
received:
25
08
2021
accepted:
03
11
2021
entrez:
30
11
2021
pubmed:
1
12
2021
medline:
15
12
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Cerebral Contusion (CC) is one of the most serious injury types in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). In this study, the baseline data, imaging features and laboratory examinations of patients with CC were summarized and analyzed to develop and validate a prediction model of nomogram to evaluate the clinical outcomes of patients. A total of 426 patients with cerebral contusion (CC) admitted to the People's Hospital of Qinghai Province and Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2018 to January 2021 were included in this study, We randomly divided the cohort into a training cohort (n = 284) and a validation cohort (n = 142) with a ratio of 2:1.At Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression were used for screening high-risk factors affecting patient prognosis and development of the predictive model. The identification ability and clinical application value of the prediction model were analyzed through the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Twelve independent prognostic factors, including age, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), Basal cistern status, Midline shift (MLS), Third ventricle status, intracranial pressure (ICP) and CT grade of cerebral edema,etc., were selected by Lasso regression analysis and included in the nomogram. The model showed good predictive performance, with a C index of (0.87, 95% CI, 0.026-0.952) in the training cohort and (0.93, 95% CI, 0.032-0.965) in the validation cohort. Clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) also showed that the model brought high clinical benefits to patients. This study established a high accuracy of nomogram model to predict the prognosis of patients with CC, its low cost, easy to promote, is especially applicable in the acute environment, at the same time, CSF-glucose/lactate ratio(C-G/L), volume of contusion, and mean CT values of edema zone, which were included for the first time in this study, were independent predictors of poor prognosis in patients with CC. However, this model still has some limitations and deficiencies, which require large sample and multi-center prospective studies to verify and improve our results.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
OBJECTIVE
Cerebral Contusion (CC) is one of the most serious injury types in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). In this study, the baseline data, imaging features and laboratory examinations of patients with CC were summarized and analyzed to develop and validate a prediction model of nomogram to evaluate the clinical outcomes of patients.
METHODS
METHODS
A total of 426 patients with cerebral contusion (CC) admitted to the People's Hospital of Qinghai Province and Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from January 2018 to January 2021 were included in this study, We randomly divided the cohort into a training cohort (n = 284) and a validation cohort (n = 142) with a ratio of 2:1.At Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression were used for screening high-risk factors affecting patient prognosis and development of the predictive model. The identification ability and clinical application value of the prediction model were analyzed through the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
RESULTS
RESULTS
Twelve independent prognostic factors, including age, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), Basal cistern status, Midline shift (MLS), Third ventricle status, intracranial pressure (ICP) and CT grade of cerebral edema,etc., were selected by Lasso regression analysis and included in the nomogram. The model showed good predictive performance, with a C index of (0.87, 95% CI, 0.026-0.952) in the training cohort and (0.93, 95% CI, 0.032-0.965) in the validation cohort. Clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) also showed that the model brought high clinical benefits to patients.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
This study established a high accuracy of nomogram model to predict the prognosis of patients with CC, its low cost, easy to promote, is especially applicable in the acute environment, at the same time, CSF-glucose/lactate ratio(C-G/L), volume of contusion, and mean CT values of edema zone, which were included for the first time in this study, were independent predictors of poor prognosis in patients with CC. However, this model still has some limitations and deficiencies, which require large sample and multi-center prospective studies to verify and improve our results.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34844563
doi: 10.1186/s12883-021-02482-4
pii: 10.1186/s12883-021-02482-4
pmc: PMC8628400
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Randomized Controlled Trial
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
463Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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