Clinical utility of family history of depression for prognosis of adolescent depression severity and duration assessed with predictive modeling.
Depression
adolescence
family history
longitudinal studies
Journal
Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines
ISSN: 1469-7610
Titre abrégé: J Child Psychol Psychiatry
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0375361
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 2022
08 2022
Historique:
accepted:
21
10
2021
pubmed:
1
12
2021
medline:
23
7
2022
entrez:
30
11
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Family history of depression (FHD) is a known risk factor for the new onset of depression. However, it is unclear if FHD is clinically useful for prognosis in adolescents with current, ongoing, or past depression. This preregistered study uses a longitudinal, multi-informant design to examine whether a child's FHD adds information about future depressive episodes and depression severity applying state-of-the-art predictive out-of-sample methodology. We examined data in adolescents with current or past depression (age 11-17 years) from the National Institute of Mental Health Characterization and Treatment of Adolescent Depression (CAT-D) study. We asked whether a history of depression in a first-degree relative was predictive of depressive episode duration (72 participants) and future depressive symptom severity in probands (129 participants, 1,439 total assessments). Family history of depression, while statistically associated with time spent depressed, did not improve predictions of time spent depressed, nor did it improve models of change in depression severity measured by self- or parent-report. Family history of depression does not improve the prediction of the course of depression in adolescents already diagnosed with depression. The difference between statistical association and predictive models highlights the importance of assessing predictive performance when evaluating questions of clinical utility.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Family history of depression (FHD) is a known risk factor for the new onset of depression. However, it is unclear if FHD is clinically useful for prognosis in adolescents with current, ongoing, or past depression. This preregistered study uses a longitudinal, multi-informant design to examine whether a child's FHD adds information about future depressive episodes and depression severity applying state-of-the-art predictive out-of-sample methodology.
METHODS
We examined data in adolescents with current or past depression (age 11-17 years) from the National Institute of Mental Health Characterization and Treatment of Adolescent Depression (CAT-D) study. We asked whether a history of depression in a first-degree relative was predictive of depressive episode duration (72 participants) and future depressive symptom severity in probands (129 participants, 1,439 total assessments).
RESULTS
Family history of depression, while statistically associated with time spent depressed, did not improve predictions of time spent depressed, nor did it improve models of change in depression severity measured by self- or parent-report.
CONCLUSIONS
Family history of depression does not improve the prediction of the course of depression in adolescents already diagnosed with depression. The difference between statistical association and predictive models highlights the importance of assessing predictive performance when evaluating questions of clinical utility.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34847615
doi: 10.1111/jcpp.13547
pmc: PMC9541414
doi:
Banques de données
ClinicalTrials.gov
['NCT03388606']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
939-947Subventions
Organisme : Intramural NIH HHS
ID : ZIA MH002957
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.
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