In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness.
SARS-CoV-2
SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness
viral kinetics
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 12 2021
07 12 2021
Historique:
accepted:
25
10
2021
entrez:
3
12
2021
pubmed:
4
12
2021
medline:
15
12
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34857628
pii: 2111477118
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2111477118
pmc: PMC8670484
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : R01 OD011095
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI152703
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI15270301
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI028433
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI116868
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateOf
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interest.
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