Development of a Prognostic Model for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis After Optic Neuritis: A Secondary Analysis of Data From the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial.
Journal
Journal of neuro-ophthalmology : the official journal of the North American Neuro-Ophthalmology Society
ISSN: 1536-5166
Titre abrégé: J Neuroophthalmol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9431308
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 03 2022
01 03 2022
Historique:
pubmed:
4
12
2021
medline:
6
5
2022
entrez:
3
12
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Optic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis. The data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Harrell's C-index and calibration curves. The rates of MS development were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Among the enrolled subjects, a total of 154 (39.7%) patients developed clinically definite MS during a median follow-up period of 15.8 years (interquartile range, 7.2-16.9 years). The factors associated with the development of MS were the presence of brain lesions as on baseline MRI, previous nonspecific neurologic symptoms, commencing low-dose corticosteroids treatment, ocular pain, and absence of optic disc/peripapillary hemorrhage. After incorporating these 5 factors into the prognostic model, a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.76) and good calibration curves were obtained. The C-index of the model was significantly higher than the C-indexes of any single factor (P < 0.001 in all cases). The model was able to stratify the ONTT patient cohort into 3 risk groups with significantly different intergroup rates of developing MS (rates for developing MS within a 15-year period: high-risk group, 75.7% [95% CI, 65.6%-82.9%], intermediate-risk group, 44.7% [95% CI, 31.4%-55.4%]; and low-risk group, 20.8% [95% CI, 14.2%-26.8%]; log-rank P < 0.001). This prognostic model had a better prediction ability when compared with the standard practice that relies solely on using brain lesions on MRI. It can, therefore, help guide decision-making to initiate earlier disease-modifying therapy for patients with optic neuritis at risk of developing MS.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Optic neuritis can be the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for predicting the risk of MS development among patients with optic neuritis.
METHODS
The data from 388 patients with optic neuritis were retrieved from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to develop a prognostic model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Harrell's C-index and calibration curves. The rates of MS development were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.
RESULTS
Among the enrolled subjects, a total of 154 (39.7%) patients developed clinically definite MS during a median follow-up period of 15.8 years (interquartile range, 7.2-16.9 years). The factors associated with the development of MS were the presence of brain lesions as on baseline MRI, previous nonspecific neurologic symptoms, commencing low-dose corticosteroids treatment, ocular pain, and absence of optic disc/peripapillary hemorrhage. After incorporating these 5 factors into the prognostic model, a C-index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.76) and good calibration curves were obtained. The C-index of the model was significantly higher than the C-indexes of any single factor (P < 0.001 in all cases). The model was able to stratify the ONTT patient cohort into 3 risk groups with significantly different intergroup rates of developing MS (rates for developing MS within a 15-year period: high-risk group, 75.7% [95% CI, 65.6%-82.9%], intermediate-risk group, 44.7% [95% CI, 31.4%-55.4%]; and low-risk group, 20.8% [95% CI, 14.2%-26.8%]; log-rank P < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS
This prognostic model had a better prediction ability when compared with the standard practice that relies solely on using brain lesions on MRI. It can, therefore, help guide decision-making to initiate earlier disease-modifying therapy for patients with optic neuritis at risk of developing MS.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34860745
doi: 10.1097/WNO.0000000000001424
pii: 00041327-202203000-00013
pmc: PMC9159903
mid: NIHMS1810643
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
88-96Subventions
Organisme : NEI NIH HHS
ID : K23 EY024345
Pays : United States
Organisme : NEI NIH HHS
ID : P30 EY026877
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 by North American Neuro-Ophthalmology Society.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors report no conflicts of interest.
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