Development of a delirium predictive model for adult trauma patients in an emergency and critical care center: a retrospective study.
adult
frailty
multiple trauma
Journal
Trauma surgery & acute care open
ISSN: 2397-5776
Titre abrégé: Trauma Surg Acute Care Open
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101698646
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
31
08
2021
accepted:
02
11
2021
entrez:
13
12
2021
pubmed:
14
12
2021
medline:
14
12
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Delirium has been shown to prolong the length of intensive care unit stay, hospitalization, and duration of ventilatory control, in addition to increasing the use of sedatives and increasing the medical costs. Although there have been a number of reports referring to risk factors for the development of delirium, no model has been developed to predict delirium in trauma patients at the time of admission. This study aimed to create a scoring system that predicts delirium in trauma patients. In this single-center, retrospective, observational study, trauma patients aged 18 years and older requiring hospitalization more than 48 hours were included and divided into the development and validation cohorts. Univariate analysis was performed in the development cohort to identify factors significantly associated with prediction of delirium. The final scoring system for predicting delirium was developed using multivariate analysis and internal validation was performed. Of the 308 patients in the development cohort, 91 developed delirium. Clinical Frailty Score, fibrin/fibrinogen degradation products, low body mass index, lactate level, and Glasgow Coma Scale score were independently associated with the development of delirium. We developed a scoring system using these factors and calculated the delirium predictive score, which had an area under the curve of 0.85. In the validation cohort, 46 of 206 patients developed delirium. The area under the curve for the validation cohort was 0.86, and the calibration plot analysis revealed the scoring system was well calibrated in the validation cohort. This scoring system for predicting delirium in trauma patients consists of only five risk factors. Delirium prediction at the time of admission may be useful in clinical practice. Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Delirium has been shown to prolong the length of intensive care unit stay, hospitalization, and duration of ventilatory control, in addition to increasing the use of sedatives and increasing the medical costs. Although there have been a number of reports referring to risk factors for the development of delirium, no model has been developed to predict delirium in trauma patients at the time of admission. This study aimed to create a scoring system that predicts delirium in trauma patients.
METHODS
METHODS
In this single-center, retrospective, observational study, trauma patients aged 18 years and older requiring hospitalization more than 48 hours were included and divided into the development and validation cohorts. Univariate analysis was performed in the development cohort to identify factors significantly associated with prediction of delirium. The final scoring system for predicting delirium was developed using multivariate analysis and internal validation was performed.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Of the 308 patients in the development cohort, 91 developed delirium. Clinical Frailty Score, fibrin/fibrinogen degradation products, low body mass index, lactate level, and Glasgow Coma Scale score were independently associated with the development of delirium. We developed a scoring system using these factors and calculated the delirium predictive score, which had an area under the curve of 0.85. In the validation cohort, 46 of 206 patients developed delirium. The area under the curve for the validation cohort was 0.86, and the calibration plot analysis revealed the scoring system was well calibrated in the validation cohort.
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSIONS
This scoring system for predicting delirium in trauma patients consists of only five risk factors. Delirium prediction at the time of admission may be useful in clinical practice.
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE
METHODS
Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34901468
doi: 10.1136/tsaco-2021-000827
pii: tsaco-2021-000827
pmc: PMC8634003
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
e000827Informations de copyright
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests: None declared.
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