Extended SEIR Model for Health Policies Assessment Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Case of Argentina.
COVID-19
Extended SEIR Model
Immunity loss
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination
Journal
Journal of healthcare informatics research
ISSN: 2509-4971
Titre abrégé: J Healthc Inform Res
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101707451
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2022
2022
Historique:
received:
01
04
2021
revised:
11
08
2021
accepted:
02
11
2021
pubmed:
14
12
2021
medline:
14
12
2021
entrez:
13
12
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34901733
doi: 10.1007/s41666-021-00110-x
pii: 110
pmc: PMC8650742
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
91-111Informations de copyright
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflict of InterestThe authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
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