The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
14 12 2021
14 12 2021
Historique:
received:
20
05
2021
accepted:
22
11
2021
entrez:
15
12
2021
pubmed:
16
12
2021
medline:
6
1
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15-47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34907206
doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27532-w
pii: 10.1038/s41467-021-27532-w
pmc: PMC8671442
doi:
Substances chimiques
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
7272Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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