Using soil-moisture drought indices to evaluate key indicators of agricultural drought in semi-arid Mediterranean Southern Africa.

Droughts are natural disasters that globally affect large numbers of people each year. While different forms of drought exist, their severity and extent are dependent on critical points of onset. Understanding these onsets is crucial for water, food and energy security, as well as to develop climate change adaptation strategies. This study used the JAMS/J2000 hydrological model to detect agricultural drought using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI). The Berg River catchment in Mediterranean South Africa was used as the pilot study area, which experienced a severe drought between 2015 and 2018 and where meteorological drought progressed into agricultural drought that resulted in significant crop reductions and job losses within the agricultural sector. To combat the effects of meteorological shortfalls, water resource management opted to curb agricultural reservoir releases, forcing farmers to rely on groundwater. Modelling results illustrated the importance of detecting headwater stress within the catchment, where in 2015/2017 headwater areas were affected for the first time over the 35-year simulation. Furthermore, regional changes to the groundwater system, during which severe to extremely severe SMDI values (-3 to -4) were simulated, is postulated to be caused by wide-spread groundwater overuse resulting in a 47% reduction in winter (JJA) and a 68% reduction in spring (SON) streamflow. Immediate streamflow reductions were observed, illustrating the low resilience of these systems to meteorological and agricultural droughts, as well as the impacts of water use behavioural changes. By using SMDI in conjunction with a well constrained hydrological model, crucial drought onset triggers can be detected as well as tipping points regarding water use behaviour. As climate change drives an increase in the occurrence of meteorological droughts in many parts of the world, understanding the advance of severe long-term effects is important for the development of effective adaption strategies to promote water, food and energy security.

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Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.