Optimizing cluster survey designs for estimating trachomatous inflammation-follicular within trachoma control programs.

The World Health Organization recommends mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. MDA decisions are based on prevalence estimates from two-stage cluster surveys. There is a need to mathematically evaluate current trachoma survey designs. Our study aimed to characterize the effects of the number of units sampled on the precision and cost of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) estimates. A population of 30 districts was simulated to represent the breadth of possible TF distributions in Amhara, Ethiopia. Samples of varying numbers of clusters (14-34) and households (10-60) were selected. Sampling schemes were evaluated based on precision, proportion of incorrect and low MDA decisions made, and estimated cost. The number of clusters sampled had a greater impact on precision than the number of households. The most efficient scheme depended on the underlying TF prevalence in a district. For lower prevalence areas (< 10%) the most cost-efficient design (providing adequate precision while minimizing cost) was 20 clusters of 20-30 households. For higher prevalence areas (> 10%), the most efficient design was 15-20 clusters of 20-30 households. For longer-running programs, using context-specific survey designs would allow for practical precision while reducing survey costs. Sampling 15 clusters of 20-30 households in suspected moderate-to-high prevalence districts and 20 clusters of 20-30 households in districts suspected to be near the 5% threshold appears to be a balanced approach.

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