A comparison of statistical methods to predict the residual lifetime risk.
Competing risks
Cumulative incidence
Left truncation
Lifetime risk
Survival analysis
Time-to-event data
Journal
European journal of epidemiology
ISSN: 1573-7284
Titre abrégé: Eur J Epidemiol
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8508062
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Feb 2022
Feb 2022
Historique:
received:
23
02
2021
accepted:
13
10
2021
pubmed:
4
1
2022
medline:
31
3
2022
entrez:
3
1
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Lifetime risk measures the cumulative risk for developing a disease over one's lifespan. Modeling the lifetime risk must account for left truncation, the competing risk of death, and inference at a fixed age. In addition, statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk should account for covariate-outcome associations that change with age. In this paper, we review and compare statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk. We first consider a generalized linear model for the lifetime risk using pseudo-observations of the Aalen-Johansen estimator at a fixed age, allowing for left truncation. We also consider modeling the subdistribution hazard with Fine-Gray and Royston-Parmar flexible parametric models in left truncated data with time-covariate interactions, and using these models to predict lifetime risk. In simulation studies, we found the pseudo-observation approach had the least bias, particularly in settings with crossing or converging cumulative incidence curves. We illustrate our method by modeling the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study. We provide technical guidance to replicate all analyses in R.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34978669
doi: 10.1007/s10654-021-00815-8
pii: 10.1007/s10654-021-00815-8
pmc: PMC8960348
mid: NIHMS1768521
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Review
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
173-194Subventions
Organisme : American Heart Association
ID : 18SFRN34110082
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : HL145904-01
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : 2U54HL120163
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : HHSN268201500001C
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : R01HL128914
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : F31 HL145904
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : 2R01 HL092577
Pays : United States
Organisme : American Heart Association
ID : 18SFRN34150007
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : N01HC25195
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : R01 HL092577
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : T32 GM074905
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : U54 HL120163
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : R01 HL128914
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : GM74905-14
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : HHSN268201500001I
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : 75N92019D00031
Pays : United States
Organisme : NHLBI NIH HHS
ID : N01-HC25195
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© 2021. Springer Nature B.V.
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