The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy.

In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.

Informations de copyright

© 2021 The Authors.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

TC was supported by the EU Commission, grant agreement No 101016233 (PERISCOPE). SB was supported by Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin, project egePan (01KX2021). ACV's institution was supported by Ministry of Culture and Science of the German State of North Rhine-Westphalia. EGl was supported by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) with Public funding support with payments to the host institute as part of the COVID-19 Fast-Track grant research project CovScreen (COVID-19/20201/14715687). EGr has received payments for a manuscript on the history of pandemics. JK is employed by a project funded by the European Research Council, European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 724460). CL received grants from the University of Oxford, National Centre for Smoking Cessation and Training, UK, Horizon 2020, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, and Pfizer Inc, royalties from Olvos Science, payment for expert testimony from Word Health Organization and European Commission, has a patent for Cretan Iama Olvos Science, and is on the advisory board for Pfizer Helas and Vianex SA. GNP received grants and royalties from Novartis, FNIH, Gilead Grants, managed through NIH, and is the chair of the Nemitsas Prize Award Committee. MPi was supported by Wellcome Trust [grant numbers: 209519/Z/17/Z; WT106612MA], MRC [grant number: MR/S035818/1], ESRC [grant numbers: ES/T014164/1; ES/S013873/1], and British Academy [EN160164]. ESz's lab receives funding for other projects from Merck Healthcare. ST's institution received grants due to his role as Co-investigator-PI in study under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant Agreement, No 883441, under the agreement and control of the Special Committee for Research Grants of the University of Athens, Athens, Greece. PWilmes’ institution received grants from the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme including the European Research Council (CoG 863664), the Luxembourg National Research Fund, and the University of Luxembourg, and owns patents. PWilmes received honoraria for being on two PhD juries at the University of Copenhagen and for the Maud Menten lecture at the University of Western Ontario, and for membership of the scientific steering committee for a clinical trial by 4D Pharma plc. and he is Co-speaker of the Research Luxembourg COVID-19 Task Force. Vice-president of the Luxembourg Society for Microbiology. All these were unrelated to this article. All other authors declare no competing interests.