The Patellar Instability Probability Calculator: A Multivariate-Based Model to Predict the Individual Risk of Recurrent Lateral Patellar Dislocation.
knee
lateral patellar dislocation
patella
patellar instability
risk factors
Journal
The American journal of sports medicine
ISSN: 1552-3365
Titre abrégé: Am J Sports Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7609541
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Feb 2022
Feb 2022
Historique:
pubmed:
22
1
2022
medline:
8
4
2022
entrez:
21
1
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Predicting the risk of recurrence is of great interest when counseling patients after primary lateral patellar dislocation (LPD). To investigate a multivariate model to predict the individual risk of recurrent LPD. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. The study population included patients with primary LPD, knee imaging, and a minimum 2-year follow-up after nonoperative treatment. Data including patient characteristics and anatomic patellar instability risk factors were collected retrospectively from 7 national study centers. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were carried out to identify risk factors for recurrent LPD and to generate an accuracy-optimized model for out-of-sample prediction. In total, 115 of 201 patients (57%) experienced recurrent LPD within 2 years after primary LPD. Age ≤16 years at primary LPD (odds ratio [OR], 5.0), history of contralateral instability (OR, 2.4), and trochlear dysplasia (Dejour type B-D: OR, 2.5; lateral trochlear inclination ≤12°: OR, 2.7) were significant risk factors for recurrent LPD ( Young age and trochlear dysplasia are major risk factors for early recurrent LPD. A multivariate model including age at primary LPD, lateral trochlear inclination, and history of contralateral LPD achieved the highest prediction accuracy. Based on these findings, the patellar instability probability calculator is proposed to estimate the individual risk of early recurrence when counseling patients after primary LPD.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Predicting the risk of recurrence is of great interest when counseling patients after primary lateral patellar dislocation (LPD).
PURPOSE
OBJECTIVE
To investigate a multivariate model to predict the individual risk of recurrent LPD.
STUDY DESIGN
METHODS
Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.
METHODS
METHODS
The study population included patients with primary LPD, knee imaging, and a minimum 2-year follow-up after nonoperative treatment. Data including patient characteristics and anatomic patellar instability risk factors were collected retrospectively from 7 national study centers. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were carried out to identify risk factors for recurrent LPD and to generate an accuracy-optimized model for out-of-sample prediction.
RESULTS
RESULTS
In total, 115 of 201 patients (57%) experienced recurrent LPD within 2 years after primary LPD. Age ≤16 years at primary LPD (odds ratio [OR], 5.0), history of contralateral instability (OR, 2.4), and trochlear dysplasia (Dejour type B-D: OR, 2.5; lateral trochlear inclination ≤12°: OR, 2.7) were significant risk factors for recurrent LPD (
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Young age and trochlear dysplasia are major risk factors for early recurrent LPD. A multivariate model including age at primary LPD, lateral trochlear inclination, and history of contralateral LPD achieved the highest prediction accuracy. Based on these findings, the patellar instability probability calculator is proposed to estimate the individual risk of early recurrence when counseling patients after primary LPD.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35060768
doi: 10.1177/03635465211063176
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM