Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two waves in Japan: Demographic characteristics and overdispersion.

COVID-19 / epidemiology Demography Humans Japan / epidemiology SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19 Dispersion parameter Overdispersion Secondary transmission Super-spreading events

Journal

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
ISSN: 1878-3511
Titre abrégé: Int J Infect Dis
Pays: Canada
ID NLM: 9610933

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Mar 2022
Historique:
received: 30 11 2021
revised: 13 01 2022
accepted: 14 01 2022
pubmed: 24 1 2022
medline: 3 3 2022
entrez: 23 1 2022
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan. We analyzed 16,471 cases between January 2020 and August 2020. We generated the number of secondary cases distribution and estimated the dispersion parameter (k) by fitting the negative binomial distribution in each phase. The frequencies of the secondary transmission were compared by demographic and clinical characteristics, calculating the odds ratio using logistic regression models. We observed that 76.7% of the primary cases did not generate secondary cases with an estimated dispersion parameter k of 0.23. The demographic patterns of primary-secondary cases differed between phases, with 20-69 years being the predominant age group. There were higher proportions of secondary transmissions among older individuals, symptomatic patients, and patients with 2 days or more between onset and confirmation. The study showed the estimation of the frequency of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of people who generated the secondary transmission.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.01.036 PMID: 35066162 PMC: PMC8772065
pubmed: 35066162
pii: S1201-9712(22)00034-0
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.01.036
pmc: PMC8772065
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

365-373

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Conflict of Interest The authors declare no competing interests.

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Auteurs

Yura K Ko (YK)

Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Toyama 1-23-1, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1 Seiryo-machi, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan 980-8575. Electronic address: yurako0603@gmail.com.

Yuki Furuse (Y)

Institute for Frontier Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto University, 53 kawaramachi, Shogoin, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan; Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, Japan. Electronic address: yukifuruse@gmail.com.

Kota Ninomiya (K)

Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, the University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan; National Institute of Public Health, 2-3-6 Minami, Wako-shi, Saitama 351-0197 Japan. Electronic address: kninomiya-mope@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp.

Kanako Otani (K)

Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Toyama 1-23-1, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: otanik@niid.go.jp.

Hiroki Akaba (H)

Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1 Seiryo-machi, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan 980-8575. Electronic address: zh44893@gmail.com.

Reiko Miyahara (R)

Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Toyama 1-23-1, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: rmiyahara@niid.go.jp.

Tadatsugu Imamura (T)

Japan International Cooperation Agency, 5-25 Niban-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8012, Japan; Center for Postgraduate Education and Training, National Center for Child Health and Development, 2-10-1 Okura, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: imamura-t@ncchd.go.jp.

Takeaki Imamura (T)

Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1 Seiryo-machi, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan 980-8575. Electronic address: timamura@med.tohoku.ac.jp.

Alex R Cook (AR)

Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore. Electronic address: ephcar@nus.edu.sg.

Mayuko Saito (M)

Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1 Seiryo-machi, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan 980-8575. Electronic address: msaitop@med.tohoku.ac.jp.

Motoi Suzuki (M)

Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Toyama 1-23-1, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: mosuzuki@niid.go.jp.

Hitoshi Oshitani (H)

Department of Virology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-1 Seiryo-machi, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan 980-8575. Electronic address: oshitanih@med.tohoku.ac.jp.

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Classifications MeSH

questionsmedicales.fr › Maladies de l'appareil respiratoire › Infections de l'appareil respiratoire › Pneumopathie infectieuse › Pneumopathie virale › COVID-19 › Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during...
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Mesures épidémiologiques › Démographie › Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during...
questionsmedicales.fr › Eucaryotes › Animaux › Chordés › Vertébrés › Mammifères › Eutheria › Primates › Haplorhini › Catarrhini › Hominidae › Humains › Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during...
questionsmedicales.fr › Régions géographiques › Iles › Japon › Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during...
questionsmedicales.fr › Virus › Virus à ARN › Virus à ARN à brin positif › Nidovirales › Coronaviridae › Coronavirus › Betacoronavirus › Virus du SRAS › SARS-CoV-2 › Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during...