Projected Saudi Arabian pediatric emergency consultant physician staffing needs for 2021-2030.
Saudi Arabia
emergency medicine
emergency service, hospital
forecasting
health services research
pediatric emergency medicine
pediatrics
workforce
Journal
Journal of the American College of Emergency Physicians open
ISSN: 2688-1152
Titre abrégé: J Am Coll Emerg Physicians Open
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101764779
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Feb 2022
Feb 2022
Historique:
received:
02
01
2021
revised:
27
11
2021
accepted:
20
12
2021
entrez:
26
1
2022
pubmed:
27
1
2022
medline:
27
1
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Assess current and future pediatric emergency physician supply and need at 26 pediatric emergency departments (EDs) in 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia from 2021 through 2030. For 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia, data were obtained on the size of the pediatric population (children <14 years old), the expected number of pediatric ED visits, and the number of pediatric emergency, fellowship-trained consultant physicians for the years 2015 through 2019. Time series linear regression modeling was used to estimate annual pediatric population sizes and pediatric ED visits for 2021-2030, based on 2015-2019 data trends. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021-2030 based on these trends was calculated according to a consensus method adopted by the Saudi Ministry of Health. For the 10 Saudi Arabian administrative regions, the pediatric population is estimated to be 8,061,409 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7,815,767 to 8,307,052) in 2021 and 9,764,591 (95% CI: 9,046,490 to 10,500,000) for 2030, and estimated the number of pediatric ED visits is 3,442,259 (95% CI: 3,013,697 to 3,870,822) for 2021 and 4,610,072 (95% CI: 3,026,986 to 6,193,158) for 2030. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021 is 1158 (95% CI: 1,002 to 1,314) and for 2030 is 1500 (95% CI: 985 to 2016), whereas deficit in number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians available is 1107 (95% CI: 944 to 1,270) for 2021 and 1405 (95% CI: 869 to 1,941) for 2030. The study projections demonstrate a disparity between current and projected supply and demand of pediatric emergency physicians within Saudi Arabia.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Assess current and future pediatric emergency physician supply and need at 26 pediatric emergency departments (EDs) in 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia from 2021 through 2030.
METHODS
METHODS
For 10 administrative regions across Saudi Arabia, data were obtained on the size of the pediatric population (children <14 years old), the expected number of pediatric ED visits, and the number of pediatric emergency, fellowship-trained consultant physicians for the years 2015 through 2019. Time series linear regression modeling was used to estimate annual pediatric population sizes and pediatric ED visits for 2021-2030, based on 2015-2019 data trends. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021-2030 based on these trends was calculated according to a consensus method adopted by the Saudi Ministry of Health.
RESULTS
RESULTS
For the 10 Saudi Arabian administrative regions, the pediatric population is estimated to be 8,061,409 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7,815,767 to 8,307,052) in 2021 and 9,764,591 (95% CI: 9,046,490 to 10,500,000) for 2030, and estimated the number of pediatric ED visits is 3,442,259 (95% CI: 3,013,697 to 3,870,822) for 2021 and 4,610,072 (95% CI: 3,026,986 to 6,193,158) for 2030. The projected number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians needed for 2021 is 1158 (95% CI: 1,002 to 1,314) and for 2030 is 1500 (95% CI: 985 to 2016), whereas deficit in number of pediatric emergency consultant physicians available is 1107 (95% CI: 944 to 1,270) for 2021 and 1405 (95% CI: 869 to 1,941) for 2030.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
The study projections demonstrate a disparity between current and projected supply and demand of pediatric emergency physicians within Saudi Arabia.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35079733
doi: 10.1002/emp2.12644
pii: EMP212644
pmc: PMC8769067
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
e12644Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Authors. JACEP Open published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Emergency Physicians.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors report no conflict of interest.
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