The co-circulating transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Eta variants in Nigeria: A retrospective modeling study of COVID-19.
Journal
Journal of global health
ISSN: 2047-2986
Titre abrégé: J Glob Health
Pays: Scotland
ID NLM: 101578780
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
entrez:
9
2
2022
pubmed:
10
2
2022
medline:
11
2
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to public health globally, and the emerging mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes has become one of the major challenges of disease control. In the second epidemic wave in Nigeria, the roles of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (ie, B.1.1.7) and Eta (ie, B.1.525) variants in contributing to the epidemiological outcomes were of public health concerns for investigation. We developed a mathematical model to capture the transmission dynamics of different types of strains in Nigeria. By fitting to the national-wide COVID-19 surveillance data, the transmission advantages of SARS-CoV-2 variants were estimated by likelihood-based inference framework. The reproduction numbers were estimated to decrease steadily from 1.5 to 0.8 in the second epidemic wave. In December 2020, when both Alpha and Eta variants were at low prevalent levels, their transmission advantages (against the wild type) were estimated at 1.51 (95% credible intervals (CrI) = 1.48, 1.54), and 1.56 (95% CrI = 1.54, 1.59), respectively. In January 2021, when the original variants almost vanished, we estimated a weak but significant transmission advantage of Eta against Alpha variants with 1.14 (95% CrI = 1.11, 1.16). Our findings suggested evidence of the transmission advantages for both Alpha and Eta variants, of which Eta appeared slightly more infectious than Alpha. We highlighted the critical importance of COVID-19 control measures in mitigating the outbreak size and relaxing the burdens to health care systems in Nigeria.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to public health globally, and the emerging mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes has become one of the major challenges of disease control. In the second epidemic wave in Nigeria, the roles of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (ie, B.1.1.7) and Eta (ie, B.1.525) variants in contributing to the epidemiological outcomes were of public health concerns for investigation.
METHODS
METHODS
We developed a mathematical model to capture the transmission dynamics of different types of strains in Nigeria. By fitting to the national-wide COVID-19 surveillance data, the transmission advantages of SARS-CoV-2 variants were estimated by likelihood-based inference framework.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The reproduction numbers were estimated to decrease steadily from 1.5 to 0.8 in the second epidemic wave. In December 2020, when both Alpha and Eta variants were at low prevalent levels, their transmission advantages (against the wild type) were estimated at 1.51 (95% credible intervals (CrI) = 1.48, 1.54), and 1.56 (95% CrI = 1.54, 1.59), respectively. In January 2021, when the original variants almost vanished, we estimated a weak but significant transmission advantage of Eta against Alpha variants with 1.14 (95% CrI = 1.11, 1.16).
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings suggested evidence of the transmission advantages for both Alpha and Eta variants, of which Eta appeared slightly more infectious than Alpha. We highlighted the critical importance of COVID-19 control measures in mitigating the outbreak size and relaxing the burdens to health care systems in Nigeria.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35136591
doi: 10.7189/jogh.11.05028
pii: jogh-11-05028
pmc: PMC8801210
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
05028Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 by the Journal of Global Health. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interest: MHW is a shareholder of Beth Bioinformatics Co., Ltd The authors have all completed the ICMJE Declaration of Interest form (available upon request from the corresponding authors), and declare no further competing interests.
Références
Euro Surveill. 2021 Jun;26(24):
pubmed: 34142653
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207
pubmed: 31995857
Theor Biol Med Model. 2021 Mar 9;18(1):10
pubmed: 33750399
Ann Transl Med. 2020 Apr;8(7):448
pubmed: 32395492
Epidemics. 2021 Sep;36:100482
pubmed: 34175549
Euro Surveill. 2021 Jun;26(23):
pubmed: 34114541
J Travel Med. 2021 Feb 23;28(2):
pubmed: 33506254
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20200265
pubmed: 34053269
Lancet. 2021 Apr 10;397(10282):1351-1362
pubmed: 33798499
Stat Methods Med Res. 2018 Jul;27(7):1968-1978
pubmed: 29846148
Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Mar;17(3):339-347
pubmed: 27914853
Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1966-70
pubmed: 12766207
Euro Surveill. 2021 Jul;26(28):
pubmed: 34269174
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018 Jan 16;12(1):e0006158
pubmed: 29338001
Nature. 2021 Apr;592(7854):438-443
pubmed: 33690265
Science. 2020 Aug 28;369(6507):1106-1109
pubmed: 32694200
J Infect. 2021 Apr;82(4):e27-e28
pubmed: 33383088
Nat Med. 2020 Nov;26(11):1714-1719
pubmed: 32943787
Lancet Public Health. 2021 May;6(5):e335-e345
pubmed: 33857453
Trends Microbiol. 2017 May;25(5):336-348
pubmed: 28377208
Clin Infect Dis. 2022 Jan 29;74(2):366-368
pubmed: 33961693
Science. 2020 May 1;368(6490):489-493
pubmed: 32179701
Science. 2021 Apr 9;372(6538):
pubmed: 33658326
Adv Parasitol. 1985;24:1-101
pubmed: 3904343
Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697
pubmed: 32014114
Science. 2021 May 21;372(6544):815-821
pubmed: 33853970
Euro Surveill. 2017 Mar 30;22(13):
pubmed: 28382917
Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Mar;27(3):970-972
pubmed: 33496249
Euro Surveill. 2021 Jul;26(27):
pubmed: 34240695
Nature. 2021 Aug;596(7871):276-280
pubmed: 34237773
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 May;20(5):553-558
pubmed: 32171059
Euro Surveill. 2021 Jan;26(1):
pubmed: 33413740
Viruses. 2021 Apr 08;13(4):
pubmed: 33918060
Math Biosci. 2002 Nov-Dec;180:29-48
pubmed: 12387915
Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 May;27(5):1496-1499
pubmed: 33769253
J R Soc Interface. 2010 Feb 6;7(43):271-83
pubmed: 19535416
J Travel Med. 2021 Oct 11;28(7):
pubmed: 34155521
BMC Med Res Methodol. 2021 Feb 10;21(1):30
pubmed: 33568100
N Engl J Med. 2021 Aug 12;385(7):585-594
pubmed: 34289274
Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 May;15(5):507-8
pubmed: 25932579
Nature. 2021 May;593(7858):266-269
pubmed: 33767447
BMC Public Health. 2020 Oct 16;20(1):1558
pubmed: 33066755
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2021 Jan 22;70(3):95-99
pubmed: 33476315
Infect Dis Model. 2017 Jun 29;2(3):288-303
pubmed: 29928743