Model-based Analysis of Tuberculosis Genotype Clusters in the United States Reveals High Degree of Heterogeneity in Transmission and State-level Differences Across California, Florida, New York, and Texas.
United States
clustering
transmission heterogeneity
tuberculosis
Journal
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
ISSN: 1537-6591
Titre abrégé: Clin Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9203213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 10 2022
12 10 2022
Historique:
received:
01
10
2021
pubmed:
11
2
2022
medline:
15
10
2022
entrez:
10
2
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Reductions in tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been instrumental in lowering TB incidence in the United States. Sustaining and augmenting these reductions are key public health priorities. We fit mechanistic transmission models to distributions of genotype clusters of TB cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2012-2016 in the United States and separately in California, Florida, New York, and Texas. We estimated the mean number of secondary cases generated per infectious case (R0) and individual-level heterogeneity in R0 at state and national levels and assessed how different definitions of clustering affected these estimates. In clusters of genotypically linked TB cases that occurred within a state over a 5-year period (reference scenario), the estimated R0 was 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], .28-.31) in the United States. Transmission was highly heterogeneous; 0.24% of simulated cases with individual R0 >10 generated 19% of all recent secondary transmissions. R0 estimate was 0.16 (95% CI, .15-.17) when a cluster was defined as cases occurring within the same county over a 3-year period. Transmission varied across states: estimated R0s were 0.34 (95% CI, .3-.4) in California, 0.28 (95% CI, .24-.36) in Florida, 0.19 (95% CI, .15-.27) in New York, and 0.38 (95% CI, .33-.46) in Texas. TB transmission in the United States is characterized by pronounced heterogeneity at the individual and state levels. Improving detection of transmission clusters through incorporation of whole-genome sequencing and identifying the drivers of this heterogeneity will be essential to reducing TB transmission.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Reductions in tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been instrumental in lowering TB incidence in the United States. Sustaining and augmenting these reductions are key public health priorities.
METHODS
We fit mechanistic transmission models to distributions of genotype clusters of TB cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2012-2016 in the United States and separately in California, Florida, New York, and Texas. We estimated the mean number of secondary cases generated per infectious case (R0) and individual-level heterogeneity in R0 at state and national levels and assessed how different definitions of clustering affected these estimates.
RESULTS
In clusters of genotypically linked TB cases that occurred within a state over a 5-year period (reference scenario), the estimated R0 was 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI], .28-.31) in the United States. Transmission was highly heterogeneous; 0.24% of simulated cases with individual R0 >10 generated 19% of all recent secondary transmissions. R0 estimate was 0.16 (95% CI, .15-.17) when a cluster was defined as cases occurring within the same county over a 3-year period. Transmission varied across states: estimated R0s were 0.34 (95% CI, .3-.4) in California, 0.28 (95% CI, .24-.36) in Florida, 0.19 (95% CI, .15-.27) in New York, and 0.38 (95% CI, .33-.46) in Texas.
CONCLUSIONS
TB transmission in the United States is characterized by pronounced heterogeneity at the individual and state levels. Improving detection of transmission clusters through incorporation of whole-genome sequencing and identifying the drivers of this heterogeneity will be essential to reducing TB transmission.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35143641
pii: 6526443
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciac121
pmc: PMC9412192
mid: NIHMS1829905
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1433-1441Subventions
Organisme : NCHHSTP CDC HHS
ID : U38 PS004646
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Potential conflicts of interest. The authors: No reported conflicts of interest. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest.