Modified Taiwan Atrial Fibrillation Score for the Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.
Asian population
incident atrial fibrillation
modified Taiwan AF score
national cohort
prediction
Journal
Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine
ISSN: 2297-055X
Titre abrégé: Front Cardiovasc Med
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101653388
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
30
10
2021
accepted:
27
12
2021
entrez:
14
2
2022
pubmed:
15
2
2022
medline:
15
2
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We have proposed the Taiwan AF score consisting of age, male sex, hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end-stage renal disease, and alcoholism to predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in Asian population. We hypothesized that the modified Taiwan AF score (mTaiwan AF score) excluding alcoholism remained useful for predicting new onset AF. A total of 7,220,654 subjects aged ≥ 40 years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia were identified from a national cohort, and 438,930 incident AF occurred during a 16-year follow-up with an incidence of 0.42 per 100 person-years. The mTaiwan AF score ranging between -2 and 14 and its predictive accuracy of incident AF was analyzed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of the mTaiwan AF scores in predicting AF are 0.861 for 1-year follow-up, 0.829 for 5-year follow-up, 0.795 for 10-year follow-up, and 0.751 for 16-year follow-up. The risk of incident AF increased from 0.05%/year for patients with a score of -2 to 6.98%/year for those having a score of 14. Patients were classified into three groups based on the tertile values of the mTaiwan AF scores-group 1 (score -2-3), group 2 (score 4-9) and group 3 (score 10-14). The annual risks of incident AF were 0.20, 1.33, and 3.36% for group 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Compared to patients in group 1, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.75-7.75] for group 2 and 8.93 (95% CI 6.47-10.80) for group 3. We demonstrated that the mTaiwan AF score based on age and clinical comorbidities could be used to predict incident AF in Asian population.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
We have proposed the Taiwan AF score consisting of age, male sex, hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, end-stage renal disease, and alcoholism to predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in Asian population. We hypothesized that the modified Taiwan AF score (mTaiwan AF score) excluding alcoholism remained useful for predicting new onset AF.
METHODS
METHODS
A total of 7,220,654 subjects aged ≥ 40 years without a past history of cardiac arrhythmia were identified from a national cohort, and 438,930 incident AF occurred during a 16-year follow-up with an incidence of 0.42 per 100 person-years. The mTaiwan AF score ranging between -2 and 14 and its predictive accuracy of incident AF was analyzed.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of the mTaiwan AF scores in predicting AF are 0.861 for 1-year follow-up, 0.829 for 5-year follow-up, 0.795 for 10-year follow-up, and 0.751 for 16-year follow-up. The risk of incident AF increased from 0.05%/year for patients with a score of -2 to 6.98%/year for those having a score of 14. Patients were classified into three groups based on the tertile values of the mTaiwan AF scores-group 1 (score -2-3), group 2 (score 4-9) and group 3 (score 10-14). The annual risks of incident AF were 0.20, 1.33, and 3.36% for group 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Compared to patients in group 1, the hazard ratios of incident AF were 5.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.75-7.75] for group 2 and 8.93 (95% CI 6.47-10.80) for group 3.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
We demonstrated that the mTaiwan AF score based on age and clinical comorbidities could be used to predict incident AF in Asian population.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35155613
doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2021.805399
pmc: PMC8831699
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
805399Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 Liao, Lim, Chen, Tuan, Chen and Chao.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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