News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact.
Consumer expectations
Large shock
Monetary policy
Survey
Uncertainty
Journal
Journal of monetary economics
ISSN: 0304-3932
Titre abrégé: J Monet Econ
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101516033
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2022
Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
30
11
2021
revised:
05
02
2022
accepted:
07
02
2022
pubmed:
16
2
2022
medline:
16
2
2022
entrez:
15
2
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
A tailor-made survey documents consumers' perceptions of the US economy's response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer's perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumers' views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty accounts for two-thirds of the fall in output. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35165494
doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.004
pii: S0304-3932(22)00021-6
pmc: PMC8827064
doi:
Types de publication
News
Langues
eng
Pagination
S35-S51Informations de copyright
© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Références
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