Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.
COVID-19
Epidemic model
Frailty variation
Herd immunity threshold
Individual variation
Selection within cohorts
Journal
Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 05 2022
07 05 2022
Historique:
received:
09
08
2021
revised:
14
02
2022
accepted:
15
02
2022
pubmed:
22
2
2022
medline:
6
4
2022
entrez:
21
2
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as "frailty variation". Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35189135
pii: S0022-5193(22)00061-3
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063
pmc: PMC8855661
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
111063Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateOf
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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