Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques.
Journal
Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire)
ISSN: 1464-3502
Titre abrégé: Alcohol Alcohol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8310684
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 Jul 2022
09 Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
16
08
2021
revised:
22
12
2021
accepted:
17
01
2022
pubmed:
27
2
2022
medline:
14
7
2022
entrez:
26
2
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example. Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35217852
pii: 6537051
doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agac003
pmc: PMC9270989
doi:
Substances chimiques
Ethanol
3K9958V90M
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
500-507Subventions
Organisme : NIAAA NIH HHS
ID : R01 AA028224
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : 1R01AA028224
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2022. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
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