Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update.
Epidemiological situation
Incidence
Time series prediction
Tuberculosis
Journal
Iranian journal of public health
ISSN: 2251-6093
Titre abrégé: Iran J Public Health
Pays: Iran
ID NLM: 7505531
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2021
Nov 2021
Historique:
received:
14
05
2020
accepted:
19
07
2020
entrez:
28
2
2022
pubmed:
1
3
2022
medline:
1
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the situation. The aim of the update of the prediction data was to create a presumption of TB development in Slovakia by 2040. We used the time series prediction method with exponential equalization. The basis for the calculation were historical data on the incidence of TB from 1960 to 2018 in Slovakia (data for the last 58 yr). This time series has a clearly declining level. In view of this trend, we have set a threshold, whether and when the incidence in the future will fall below 5.0 patients per 100,000 inhabitants. In case of a favorable development, the limit of our incidence drop below 5.0 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2022, when the incidence will be 4.91 per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2040, the predicted incidence of TB should be 1.78 per 100 000 inhabitants. A gradual decline may also be related to a decrease in the population of the Slovak Republic. Slovakia belongs to those countries of the world where TB is under control. Increased surveillance of high-risk communities through community interventions and countries' readiness for global migration can help to influence factors that may aggravate the epidemiological situation of TB.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the situation. The aim of the update of the prediction data was to create a presumption of TB development in Slovakia by 2040.
METHODS
METHODS
We used the time series prediction method with exponential equalization. The basis for the calculation were historical data on the incidence of TB from 1960 to 2018 in Slovakia (data for the last 58 yr). This time series has a clearly declining level. In view of this trend, we have set a threshold, whether and when the incidence in the future will fall below 5.0 patients per 100,000 inhabitants.
RESULTS
RESULTS
In case of a favorable development, the limit of our incidence drop below 5.0 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2022, when the incidence will be 4.91 per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2040, the predicted incidence of TB should be 1.78 per 100 000 inhabitants. A gradual decline may also be related to a decrease in the population of the Slovak Republic.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Slovakia belongs to those countries of the world where TB is under control. Increased surveillance of high-risk communities through community interventions and countries' readiness for global migration can help to influence factors that may aggravate the epidemiological situation of TB.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35223597
doi: 10.18502/ijph.v50i11.7577
pii: IJPH-50-2229
pmc: PMC8826319
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
2229-2237Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 Kober et al. Published by Tehran University of Medical Sciences.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflict of interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests.
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