Sarculator is a Good Model to Predict Survival in Resected Extremity and Trunk Sarcomas in US Patients.
Journal
Annals of surgical oncology
ISSN: 1534-4681
Titre abrégé: Ann Surg Oncol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9420840
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
27 Feb 2022
27 Feb 2022
Historique:
received:
23
06
2021
accepted:
24
01
2022
entrez:
28
2
2022
pubmed:
1
3
2022
medline:
1
3
2022
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Sarculator is an online validated nomogram that predicts overall survival of patients with resected, primary extremity sarcomas. However, its ability to accurately predict outcomes in US patients with sarcoma is unknown. Patients from the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) (2006-2016) with resected stage I-III primary extremity or trunk sarcoma were included. Predicted overall survival (pOS) was calculated using the Sarculator algorithm, which includes patient age, tumor size (cm), grade (1-3), and histology, and compared with actual overall survival (aOS). Harrell's C-index was calculated to determine the discriminatory ability of Sarculator (0.7 = good, 0.8 = strong, 1.0 = perfect model), and calibration plots were created. In total, 9738 patients were included. Five-year pOS was 73.7% compared with aOS of 68.9%. The C-index for the entire cohort was 0.726. By stage, the C-index was 0.730 for stage I, 0.708 for stage II, and 0.679 for stage III. By histology, C-indices were highest for leiomyosarcoma (0.745), myxofibrosarcoma (0.722), and other histologies (0.721). By sociodemographic variables, Sarculator performed better for patients < 50 years (C-index 0.722), of other/unknown race (C-index 0.781), with private insurance (C-index 0.715), treated at a center other than a community cancer programs (C-index > 0.7), and with no comorbidities (C-index 0.716). Outcomes by zip code educational attainment and income were not markedly different (all C-indices > 0.7). Sarculator is overall a good predictor of aOS and useful tool for clinicians to aid in survival prognostication. However, clinicians should be aware of populations for whom Sarculator's predictions may be less accurate. Future work could focus on enhancing the Sarculator algorithm specifically for US patients by including demographic variables.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Sarculator is an online validated nomogram that predicts overall survival of patients with resected, primary extremity sarcomas. However, its ability to accurately predict outcomes in US patients with sarcoma is unknown.
PATIENTS AND METHODS
METHODS
Patients from the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) (2006-2016) with resected stage I-III primary extremity or trunk sarcoma were included. Predicted overall survival (pOS) was calculated using the Sarculator algorithm, which includes patient age, tumor size (cm), grade (1-3), and histology, and compared with actual overall survival (aOS). Harrell's C-index was calculated to determine the discriminatory ability of Sarculator (0.7 = good, 0.8 = strong, 1.0 = perfect model), and calibration plots were created.
RESULTS
RESULTS
In total, 9738 patients were included. Five-year pOS was 73.7% compared with aOS of 68.9%. The C-index for the entire cohort was 0.726. By stage, the C-index was 0.730 for stage I, 0.708 for stage II, and 0.679 for stage III. By histology, C-indices were highest for leiomyosarcoma (0.745), myxofibrosarcoma (0.722), and other histologies (0.721). By sociodemographic variables, Sarculator performed better for patients < 50 years (C-index 0.722), of other/unknown race (C-index 0.781), with private insurance (C-index 0.715), treated at a center other than a community cancer programs (C-index > 0.7), and with no comorbidities (C-index 0.716). Outcomes by zip code educational attainment and income were not markedly different (all C-indices > 0.7).
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Sarculator is overall a good predictor of aOS and useful tool for clinicians to aid in survival prognostication. However, clinicians should be aware of populations for whom Sarculator's predictions may be less accurate. Future work could focus on enhancing the Sarculator algorithm specifically for US patients by including demographic variables.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35224688
doi: 10.1245/s10434-022-11442-2
pii: 10.1245/s10434-022-11442-2
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
© 2022. Society of Surgical Oncology.
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