Construction of a predictive model for clinical survival in male patients with non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma.
Nomogram
Non-metastatic
Prediction
Rectal adenocarcinoma
Survival prediction
Journal
Asian journal of surgery
ISSN: 0219-3108
Titre abrégé: Asian J Surg
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8900600
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jan 2023
Jan 2023
Historique:
received:
18
10
2021
revised:
15
12
2021
accepted:
11
02
2022
pubmed:
2
3
2022
medline:
16
12
2022
entrez:
1
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
No clinical prediction model is available for non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma in males. Based on demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, we constructed a survival prediction model for the study population. At a ratio of 7:3, 3450 eligible patients were divided into training and validation sets. Optimal cutoff values were calculated using X-tile software. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to find prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Corresponding nomogram prognostic models were also constructed based on predictors.The validity, discriminative ability, predictability, and clinical usefulness of the model were analyzed and assessed. We identified predictors of survival in the target population and successfully constructed nomograms. In the nomogram prediction model for OS and CSS, the C-index was 0.724 and 0.735, respectively, for the training group and 0.754 and 0.760, respectively, for the validation group. In the validation group, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for OS and CSS nomograms was 0.768 and 0.769, respectively, for the 3-year survival rate and 0.755 and 0.747, respectively, for the 5-year survival rate. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves showed excellent risk discrimination performance of the nomogram (P < 0.05) Calibration curves, time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the prediction model constructed in this study had excellent clinical prediction and decision ability and performed better than the TNM staging system. Our nomogram is helpful to evaluate the prognosis of non-metastatic male patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and has guiding significance for clinical treatment.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
No clinical prediction model is available for non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma in males. Based on demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, we constructed a survival prediction model for the study population.
METHODS
METHODS
At a ratio of 7:3, 3450 eligible patients were divided into training and validation sets. Optimal cutoff values were calculated using X-tile software. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to find prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Corresponding nomogram prognostic models were also constructed based on predictors.The validity, discriminative ability, predictability, and clinical usefulness of the model were analyzed and assessed.
RESULTS
RESULTS
We identified predictors of survival in the target population and successfully constructed nomograms. In the nomogram prediction model for OS and CSS, the C-index was 0.724 and 0.735, respectively, for the training group and 0.754 and 0.760, respectively, for the validation group. In the validation group, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for OS and CSS nomograms was 0.768 and 0.769, respectively, for the 3-year survival rate and 0.755 and 0.747, respectively, for the 5-year survival rate. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves showed excellent risk discrimination performance of the nomogram (P < 0.05) Calibration curves, time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the prediction model constructed in this study had excellent clinical prediction and decision ability and performed better than the TNM staging system.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Our nomogram is helpful to evaluate the prognosis of non-metastatic male patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and has guiding significance for clinical treatment.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35227564
pii: S1015-9584(22)00105-1
doi: 10.1016/j.asjsur.2022.02.004
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
132-142Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 Asian Surgical Association and Taiwan Robotic Surgery Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of competing interest A conflict of interest occurs when an individual's objectivity is potentially compromised by a desire for financial gain, prominence, professional advancement or a successful outcome. ASJSUR Editors strive to ensure that what is published in the Journal is as balanced, objective and evidence-based as possible. Since it can be difficult to distinguish between an actual conflict of interest and a perceived conflict of interest, the Journal requires authors to disclose all and any potential conflicts of interest.