Was Alpha deadlier than wild-type COVID? Analysis in rural England.
COVID-19
Deprivation
Disease outbreak
Epidemiology
Mortality
Risk factors
Journal
Infection
ISSN: 1439-0973
Titre abrégé: Infection
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 0365307
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2022
Oct 2022
Historique:
received:
12
11
2021
accepted:
17
02
2022
pubmed:
6
3
2022
medline:
4
10
2022
entrez:
5
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
It is useful to document whether each newly dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern was more or less dangerous than preceding dominant variant(s). We assessed if the emergence of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant in autumn 2020 could be linked to higher case fatality rates, compared to original wild-type COVID-19, subgrouping by age band, sex, deprivation or month of diagnosis as potential risk factors. Observational study and secondary analysis were conducted of SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed due to medical need or occupational exposure in an administrative area of Eastern England, UK (base population 1 million), who first tested positive in the period 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to examine relationships of age group, sex, deprivation group and month of diagnosis with case fatality rates within 28 days of diagnosis. Marginal probabilities for risk of dying were calculated separately for the first two main 'wave' periods of the English pandemic. Older age and male sex consistently raised the risk of mortality in both wave periods. Higher deprivation was linked to mortality risk in the first wave period, but not in the second wave. Mortality decreased over time during the first wave period, but slightly increased over time during the second wave. Cases were younger in the second wave, and median age of the deceased varied little between waves. The Alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 did not lead to higher mortality rates for any age, deprivation or sex group, compared to case fatality rates in the early part of the pandemic period.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
It is useful to document whether each newly dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern was more or less dangerous than preceding dominant variant(s). We assessed if the emergence of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant in autumn 2020 could be linked to higher case fatality rates, compared to original wild-type COVID-19, subgrouping by age band, sex, deprivation or month of diagnosis as potential risk factors.
METHODS
METHODS
Observational study and secondary analysis were conducted of SARS-CoV-2 cases diagnosed due to medical need or occupational exposure in an administrative area of Eastern England, UK (base population 1 million), who first tested positive in the period 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to examine relationships of age group, sex, deprivation group and month of diagnosis with case fatality rates within 28 days of diagnosis. Marginal probabilities for risk of dying were calculated separately for the first two main 'wave' periods of the English pandemic.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Older age and male sex consistently raised the risk of mortality in both wave periods. Higher deprivation was linked to mortality risk in the first wave period, but not in the second wave. Mortality decreased over time during the first wave period, but slightly increased over time during the second wave. Cases were younger in the second wave, and median age of the deceased varied little between waves.
INTERPRETATION
CONCLUSIONS
The Alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 did not lead to higher mortality rates for any age, deprivation or sex group, compared to case fatality rates in the early part of the pandemic period.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35247164
doi: 10.1007/s15010-022-01787-x
pii: 10.1007/s15010-022-01787-x
pmc: PMC8898029
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Observational Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1171-1178Subventions
Organisme : National Institute for Health Research
ID : NIHR200890
Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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