Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes-A comparative analysis of chronic disease projection methods.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2022
2022
Historique:
received:
01
12
2021
accepted:
15
02
2022
entrez:
7
3
2022
pubmed:
8
3
2022
medline:
27
4
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Accurate projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases are necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning in response to changes in disease burden. To introduce and compare different projection methods to estimate the number of people with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany in 2040. We compare three methods to project the number of males with T2D in Germany in 2040. Method 1) simply combines the sex- and age-specific prevalence of T2D in 2010 with future population distributions projected by the German Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Methods 2) and 3) additionally account for the incidence of T2D and mortality rates using partial differential equations (PDEs). Method 2) models the prevalence of T2D employing a scalar PDE which incorporates incidence and mortality rates. Subsequently, the estimated prevalence is applied to the population projection of the FSO. Method 3) uses a two-dimensional system of PDEs and estimates future case numbers directly while future mortality of people with and without T2D is modelled independently from the projection of the FSO. Method 1) projects 3.6 million male people with diagnosed T2D in Germany in 2040. Compared to 2.8 million males in 2010, this equals an increase by 29%. Methods 2) and 3) project 5.9 million (+104% compared to 2010) and 6.0 million (+116%) male T2D patients, respectively. The results of the three methods differ substantially. It appears that ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality may result in misleading projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases. Hence, it is essential to include these rates as is done by method 2) and 3).
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Accurate projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases are necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning in response to changes in disease burden.
AIM
To introduce and compare different projection methods to estimate the number of people with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany in 2040.
METHODS
We compare three methods to project the number of males with T2D in Germany in 2040. Method 1) simply combines the sex- and age-specific prevalence of T2D in 2010 with future population distributions projected by the German Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Methods 2) and 3) additionally account for the incidence of T2D and mortality rates using partial differential equations (PDEs). Method 2) models the prevalence of T2D employing a scalar PDE which incorporates incidence and mortality rates. Subsequently, the estimated prevalence is applied to the population projection of the FSO. Method 3) uses a two-dimensional system of PDEs and estimates future case numbers directly while future mortality of people with and without T2D is modelled independently from the projection of the FSO.
RESULTS
Method 1) projects 3.6 million male people with diagnosed T2D in Germany in 2040. Compared to 2.8 million males in 2010, this equals an increase by 29%. Methods 2) and 3) project 5.9 million (+104% compared to 2010) and 6.0 million (+116%) male T2D patients, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The results of the three methods differ substantially. It appears that ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality may result in misleading projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases. Hence, it is essential to include these rates as is done by method 2) and 3).
Identifiants
pubmed: 35255104
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264739
pii: PONE-D-21-38063
pmc: PMC8901066
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0264739Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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