HOSPITAL Score and LACE Index to Predict Mortality in Multimorbid Older Patients.
Journal
Drugs & aging
ISSN: 1179-1969
Titre abrégé: Drugs Aging
Pays: New Zealand
ID NLM: 9102074
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2022
03 2022
Historique:
accepted:
15
02
2022
pubmed:
10
3
2022
medline:
6
4
2022
entrez:
9
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Estimating life expectancy of older adults informs whether to pursue future investigation and therapy. Several models to predict mortality have been developed but often require data not immediately available during routine clinical care. The HOSPITAL score and the LACE index were previously validated to predict 30-day readmissions but may also help to assess mortality risk. We assessed their performance to predict 1-year and 30-day mortality in hospitalized older multimorbid patients with polypharmacy. We calculated the HOSPITAL score and LACE index in patients from the OPERAM (OPtimising thERapy to prevent Avoidable hospital admissions in the Multimorbid elderly) trial (patients aged ≥ 70 years with multimorbidity and polypharmacy, admitted to hospital across four European countries in 2016-2018). Our primary and secondary outcomes were 1-year and 30-day mortality. We assessed the overall accuracy (scaled Brier score, the lower the better), calibration (predicted/observed proportions), and discrimination (C-statistic) of the models. Within 1 year, 375/1879 (20.0%) patients had died, including 94 deaths within 30 days. The overall accuracy was good and similar for both models (scaled Brier score 0.01-0.08). The C-statistics were identical for both models (0.69 for 1-year mortality, p = 0.81; 0.66 for 30-day mortality, p = 0.94). Calibration showed well-matching predicted/observed proportions. The HOSPITAL score and LACE index showed similar performance to predict 1-year and 30-day mortality in older multimorbid patients with polypharmacy. Their overall accuracy was good, their discrimination low to moderate, and the calibration good. These simple tools may help predict older multimorbid patients' mortality after hospitalization, which may inform post-hospitalization intensity of care.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Estimating life expectancy of older adults informs whether to pursue future investigation and therapy. Several models to predict mortality have been developed but often require data not immediately available during routine clinical care. The HOSPITAL score and the LACE index were previously validated to predict 30-day readmissions but may also help to assess mortality risk. We assessed their performance to predict 1-year and 30-day mortality in hospitalized older multimorbid patients with polypharmacy.
METHODS
We calculated the HOSPITAL score and LACE index in patients from the OPERAM (OPtimising thERapy to prevent Avoidable hospital admissions in the Multimorbid elderly) trial (patients aged ≥ 70 years with multimorbidity and polypharmacy, admitted to hospital across four European countries in 2016-2018). Our primary and secondary outcomes were 1-year and 30-day mortality. We assessed the overall accuracy (scaled Brier score, the lower the better), calibration (predicted/observed proportions), and discrimination (C-statistic) of the models.
RESULTS
Within 1 year, 375/1879 (20.0%) patients had died, including 94 deaths within 30 days. The overall accuracy was good and similar for both models (scaled Brier score 0.01-0.08). The C-statistics were identical for both models (0.69 for 1-year mortality, p = 0.81; 0.66 for 30-day mortality, p = 0.94). Calibration showed well-matching predicted/observed proportions.
CONCLUSION
The HOSPITAL score and LACE index showed similar performance to predict 1-year and 30-day mortality in older multimorbid patients with polypharmacy. Their overall accuracy was good, their discrimination low to moderate, and the calibration good. These simple tools may help predict older multimorbid patients' mortality after hospitalization, which may inform post-hospitalization intensity of care.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35260994
doi: 10.1007/s40266-022-00927-0
pii: 10.1007/s40266-022-00927-0
pmc: PMC8934762
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
223-234Subventions
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : P2LAP3_184042
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : 320030_188549
Organisme : Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
ID : 6342388
Organisme : Staatssekretariat für Bildung, Forschung und Innovation
ID : 15.0137
Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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