A Framework for Inferring Epidemiological Model Parameters using Bayesian Nonparametrics.
Journal
AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium
ISSN: 1942-597X
Titre abrégé: AMIA Annu Symp Proc
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101209213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
entrez:
21
3
2022
pubmed:
22
3
2022
medline:
29
3
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The use of epidemiological models for decision-making has been prominent during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work presents the application of nonparametric Bayesian techniques for inferring epidemiological model parameters based on available data sets published during the pandemic, towards enabling predictions under uncertainty during emerging pandemics. We present a methodology and framework that allows epidemiological model drivers to be integrated as input into the model calibration process. We demonstrate our methodology using the stringency index and mobility data for COVID-19 on an SEIRD compartmental model for selected US states. Our results directly compare the use of Bayesian nonparametrics for model predictions based on best parameter estimates with results of inference of parameter values across the US states. The proposed methodology provides a framework for What-If analysis and sequential decision-making methods for disease intervention planning and is demonstrated for COVID-19, while also applicable to other infectious disease models.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
217-226Informations de copyright
©2021 AMIA - All rights reserved.
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