Nonlinear spatial and temporal decomposition provides insight for climate change effects on sub-Arctic herbivore populations.
Climate window
Decomposed covariates
Generalized additive models
Plant productivity
Reindeer
Varying coefficient models
Journal
Oecologia
ISSN: 1432-1939
Titre abrégé: Oecologia
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 0150372
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2022
Apr 2022
Historique:
received:
23
10
2021
accepted:
06
03
2022
pubmed:
25
3
2022
medline:
4
5
2022
entrez:
24
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Global temperatures are increasing, affecting timing and availability of vegetation along with relationships between plants and their consumers. We examined the effect of population density, herd body condition in the previous year, elevation, plant productivity and phenology, snow, and winter onset on juvenile body mass in 63 semi-domesticated populations of Rangifer tarandus throughout Norway using spatiotemporal generalized additive models (GAMs) and varying coefficient models (VCMs). Optimal climate windows were calculated at both the regional and national level using a novel nonlinear climate window algorithm optimized for prediction. Spatial and temporal variation in effects of population and environmental predictors were considered using a model including covariates decomposed into spatial, temporal, and residual components. The performance of this decomposed model was compared to spatiotemporal GAMs and VCMs. The decomposed model provided the best fit and lowest prediction errors. A positive effect of herd body condition in the previous year explained most of the deviance in calf body mass, followed by a more complex effect of population density. A negative effect of timing of spring and positive effect of winter onset on juvenile body mass suggested that a snow free season was positive for juvenile body mass growth. Our findings suggest early spring onset and later winter permanent snow cover as reinforcers of early-life conditions which support more robust reindeer populations. Our methodological improvements for climate window analyses and effect size measures for decomposed variables provide important contributions to account for, measure, and interpret nonlinear relationships between climate and animal populations at large scales.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35325288
doi: 10.1007/s00442-022-05150-7
pii: 10.1007/s00442-022-05150-7
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
889-904Subventions
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DGE-1414475
Organisme : Research Council of Norway
ID : 276395
Commentaires et corrections
Type : ErratumIn
Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
Références
Aanes R, Sæther B-E, Øritsland NA (2000) Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography 23(4):437–443
Aanes R, Sæther B-E, Smith FM, Cooper EJ, Wookey PA, Øritsland NA (2002) The Arctic Oscillation predicts effects of climate change in two trophic levels in a high-arctic ecosystem. Ecol Lett 5(3):445–453
Aerts R (2010) Nitrogen-dependent recovery of subarctic tundra vegetation after simulation of extreme winter warming damage to Empetrum hermaphroditum. Glob Change Biol 16(3):1071–1081
Albon SD, Irvine RJ, Halvorsen O, Langvatn R, Loe LE, Ropstad E, Veiberg V, van der Wal R, Bjørkvoll EM, Duff EI, Hansen BB, Lee AM, Tveraa T, Stien A (2016) Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore. Glob Change Biol 23(4):1374–1389
Augustin NH, Musio M, von Wilpert K, Kublin E, Wood SN, Schumacher M (2009) Modeling spatiotemporal forest health monitoring data. J Am Stat Assoc 104(487):899–911
Augustin NH, Trenkel VM, Wood SN, Lorance P (2013) Space-time modelling of blue ling for fisheries stock management. Environmetrics 24(2):109–119
Ballesteros M, Bårdsen B-J, Fauchald P, Langeland K, Stien A, Tveraa T (2013) Combined effects of long-term feeding, population density and vegetation green-up on reindeer demography. Ecosphere 4(4):art45
Bårdsen B-J (2017) Evolutionary responses to a changing climate: implications for reindeer population viability. Ecol Evol 7(15):5833–5844
pubmed: 28808551
pmcid: 5551091
Bårdsen B-J, Tveraa T (2012) Density-dependence vs. density-independence—linking reproductive allocation to population abundance and vegetation greenness. J Anim Ecol 81(2):364–376
pubmed: 21985598
Bjerke JW, Bokhorst S, Zielke M, Callaghan TV, Bowles FW, Phoenix GK (2011) Contrasting sensitivity to extreme winter warming events of dominant sub-arctic heathland bryophyte and lichen species. J Ecol 99(6):1481–1488
Bokhorst S, Bjerke JW, Bowles FW, Melillo J, Callaghan TV, Phoenix GK (2008) Impacts of extreme winter warming in the sub-arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland. Glob Change Biol 14(11):2603–2612
Bonenfant C, Gaillard J, Coulson T, Festa-Bianchet M, Loison A, Garel M, Loe LE, Blanchard P, Pettorelli N, Owen-Smith N, Toit JD, Duncan P (2009) Chapter 5 empirical evidence of density-dependence in populations of large herbivores. Adv Ecol Res 41:313–357
Callaghan TV, Johansson M, Brown RD, Groisman PY, Labba N, Radionov V, Bradley RS, Blangy S, Bulygina ON, Christensen TR, Colman JE, Essery RLH, Forbes BC, Forchhammer MC, Golubev VN, Honrath RE, Juday GP, Meshcherskaya AV, Phoenix GK, Pomeroy J, Rautio A, Robinson DA, Schmidt NM, Serreze MC, Shevchenko VP, Shiklomanov AI, Shmakin AB, Sköld P, Sturm M, Woo M-K, Wood EF (2011) Multiple effects of changes in arctic snow cover. Ambio 40(Suppl 1):32–45
Collado E, Bonet J, Camarero J, Egli S, Peter M, Salo K, Martínez-Peña F, Ohenoja E, Martín-Pinto P, Primicia I, Büntgen U, Kurttila M, de Rueda JO, de Aragón JM, Miina J, de Miguel S (2019) Mushroom productivity trends in relation to tree growth and climate across different european forest biomes. Sci Total Environ 689:602–615
pubmed: 31279206
Collins W, Smith T (1991). Effects of wind-hardened snow on foraging by reindeer (rangifer tarandus). Arctic, pp 217–222
Colman JE, Pedersen C, Hjermann DØ, Holand Ø, Moe SR, Reimers E (2003) Do wild reindeer exhibit grazing compensation during insect harassment? J Wildl Manage 67(1):11–19
Coull BA, Ruppert D, Wand MP (2001) Simple incorporation of interactions into additive models. Biometrics 57(2):539–545
pubmed: 11414581
Doiron M, Legagneux P, Gauthier G, Lévesque E (2013) Broad-scale satellite normalized difference vegetation index data predict plant biomass and peak date of nitrogen concentration in Arctic tundra vegetation. Appl Veget Sci 16(2):343–351
Dyrrdal AV, Saloranta T, Skaugen T, Stranden HB (2013) Changes in snow depth in Norway during the period 1961–2010. Hydrol Res 44(1):169–179
Finley AO (2011) Comparing spatially-varying coefficients models for analysis of ecological data with non-stationary and anisotropic residual dependence. Methods Ecol Evol 2(2):143–154
Gaillard J-M, Boutin J-M, Delorme D, Van Laere G, Duncan P, Lebreton J-D (1997) Early survival in roe deer: causes and consequences of cohort variation in two contrasted populations. Oecologia 112(4):502–513
pubmed: 28307627
Gaillard J-M, Festa-Bianchet M, Yoccoz NG (1998) Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival. Trends Ecol Evol 13(2):58–63
pubmed: 21238201
Gordon IJ, Hester AJ, Festa-Bianchet M (2004) Review: the management of wild large herbivores to meet economic, conservation and environmental objectives. J Appl Ecol 41(6):1021–1031
GRASS Development Team (2017) Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS GIS) Software, Version 7.2. Open Source Geospatial Foundation
Hamel S, Garel M, Festa-Bianchet M, Gaillard J-M, Côté SD (2009) Spring normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi) predicts annual variation in timing of peak faecal crude protein in mountain ungulates. J Appl Ecol 46(3):582–589
Hansen BB, Aanes R, Herfindal I, Kohler J, Sæther B-E (2011) Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects. Ecology 92(10):1917–1923
pubmed: 22073783
Hansen BB, Gamelon M, Albon SD, Lee AM, Stien A, Irvine RJ, Sæther B-E, Loe LE, Ropstad E, Veiberg V, Grøtan V (2019a) More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics. Nat Commun 10(1):1616
pubmed: 30962419
pmcid: 6453938
Hansen BB, Pedersen ÅØ, Peeters B, Le Moullec M, Albon SD, Herfindal I, Sæther B-E, Grøtan V, Aanes R (2019b) Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high arctic. Glob Change Biol 25(11):3656–3668
Hastie TJ, Tibshirani RJ (1990) Generalized additive models. In: Monographs on statistics and applied probability, vol 43. Chapman and Hall, Ltd., London
Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1993) Varying-coefficient models. J R Stat Soc Ser B (Methodol) 55(4):757–796
Helle T, Kojola I (2008) Demographics in an alpine reindeer herd: effects of density and winter weather. Ecography 31(2):221–230
Hogda KA, Karlsen SR, Solheim I (2001) Climatic change impact on growing season in fennoscandia studied by a time series of noaa avhrr ndvi data. In: IGARSS 2001. Scanning the Present and Resolving the Future. Proceedings. IEEE 2001 International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (Cat. No. 01CH37217), vol 3, pp 1338–1340. IEEE
Hogrefe KR, Patil VP, Ruthrauff DR, Meixell BW, Budde ME, Hupp JW, Ward DH (2017) Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in Arctic Alaska. Remote Sens 9(12):1234
Holand Ø, Røed KH, Mysterud A, Kumpula J, Nieminen M, Smith ME (2003) The effect of sex ratio and male age structure on reindeer calving. J Wildl Manage 67(1):25–33
Høye TT, Post E, Meltofte H, Schmidt NM, Forchhammer MC (2007) Rapid advancement of spring in the high arctic. Curr Biol 17(12):R449–R451
pubmed: 17580070
Kauserud H, Stige LC, Vik JO, Økland RH, Høiland K, Stenseth NC (2008) Mushroom fruiting and climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(10):3811–3814
pubmed: 18310325
pmcid: 2268836
Kauserud H, Heegaard E, Semenov MA, Boddy L, Halvorsen R, Stige LC, Sparks TH, Gange AC, Stenseth NC (2010) Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi. Proc R Soc B: Biol Sci 277(1685):1169–1177
Kauserud H, Heegaard E, Halvorsen R, Boddy L, Høiland K, Stenseth NC (2011) Mushroom’s spore size and time of fruiting are strongly related: is moisture important? Biol Lett 7(2):273–276
pubmed: 20961882
Keeling CD, Chin JFS, Whorf TP (1996) Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO[Formula: see text] measurements. Nature 382(6587):146–149
Loe LE, Liston GE, Pigeon G, Barker K, Horvitz N, Stien A, Forchhammer M, Getz W, Irvine RJ, Lee A, Movik LK, Mysterud A, Pedersen ÅØ, Reinking AK, Ropstad E, Trondrud LM, Tveraa T, Veiberg V, Hansen BB, Albon S (2020) The neglected season: warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in arctic reindeer. Glob Change Biol 27:993–1002
Lussana C, Saloranta T, Skaugen T, Magnusson J, Tveito OE, Andersen J (2018) senorge2 daily precipitation, an observational gridded dataset over norway from 1957 to the present day. Earth Syst Sci Data 10(1):235–249
Mårell A, Hofgaard A, Danell K (2006) Nutrient dynamics of reindeer forage species along snowmelt gradients at different ecological scales. Basic Appl Ecol 7(1):13–30
Marin A, Sjaastad E, Benjaminsen TA, Sara MNM, Borgenvik EJL (2020) Productivity beyond density: a critique of management models for reindeer pastoralism in norway. Pastoralism 10(1):9
Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pörtner HO, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Péan C, Pidcock R, Connors S, Matthews JBR, Chen Y, Zhou X, Gomis MI, Lonnoy E, Maycock T, Tignor M, Waterfield T (eds) (2018) Global warming of 1.5[Formula: see text]C.An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5[Formula: see text]C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, chapter IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, pp 32
MET Norway (2018) Norwegian Meteorological Institute: Cryo. Online. Data retrieved from Norwegian Meteorological Institute, http://www.senorge.no/
Moisen GG, Frescino TS (2002) Comparing five modelling techniques for predicting forest characteristics. Ecol Model 157(2):209–225
Movik LK (2018) Effects of spatio-temporal weather conditions in autumn and winter on body mass and behaviour of the high arctic svalbard reindeer (rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). Master’s thesis, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Mu J, Wang G, Wang L (2018) Estimation and inference in spatially varying coefficient models. Environmetrics 29(1):e2485. e2485 env.2485
Ndegwa Mundia C, Murayama Y (2009) Analysis of land use/cover changes and animal population dynamics in a wildlife sanctuary in East Africa. Remote Sens 1(4):952–970
Oberbauer SF, Elmendorf SC, Troxler TG, Hollister RD, Rocha AV, Bret-Harte MS, Dawes MA, Fosaa AM, Henry GHR, Høye TT, Jarrad FC, Jónsdóttir IS, Klanderud K, Klein JA, Molau U, Rixen C, Schmidt NM, Shaver GR, Slider RT, Totland Ø, Wahren C-H, Welker JM (2013) Phenological response of tundra plants to background climate variation tested using the international tundra experiment. Philos Trans R Soc B: Biol Sci 368(1624):20120481
Oedekoven CS, Elston DA, Harrison PJ, Brewer MJ, Buckland ST, Johnston A, Foster S, Pearce-Higgins JW (2017) Attributing changes in the distribution of species abundance to weather variables using the example of British breeding birds. Methods Ecol Evol 8(12):1690–1702
Ogutu JO, Owen-Smith N, Piepho H-P, Dublin HT (2015) How rainfall variation influences reproductive patterns of african savanna ungulates in an equatorial region where photoperiod variation is absent. PLOS ONE 10(8):1
Owen-Smith N (1990) Demography of a large herbivore, the Greater Kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros, in relation to rainfall. J Anim Ecol 59(3):893–913
Owen-Smith N, Mason DR, Ogutu JO (2005) Correlates of survival rates for 10 African ungulate populations: density, rainfall and predation. J Anim Ecol 74(4):774–788
Paoli A, Weladji RB, Holand Ø, Kumpula J (2018) Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer. PLOS ONE 13(4):1–21
Paoli A, Weladji RB, Holand O, Kumpula J (2019) The onset in spring and the end in autumn of the thermal and vegetative growing season affect calving time and reproductive success in reindeer. Curr Zool 66(2):123–134
pubmed: 32440272
pmcid: 7233615
Paoli A, Weladji RB, Holand O, Kumpula J (2020) Early-life conditions determine the between-individual heterogeneity in plasticity of calving date in reindeer. J Anim Ecol 89(2):370–383
pubmed: 31429472
Pape R, Löffler J (2015) Ecological dynamics in habitat selection of reindeer: an interplay of spatial scale, time, and individual animal’s choice. Polar Biol 38(11):1891–1903
Park T, Ganguly S, Tømmervik H, Euskirchen ES, Høgda K-A, Karlsen SR, Brovkin V, Nemani RR, Myneni RB (2016) Changes in growing season duration and productivity of northern vegetation inferred from long-term remote sensing data. Environ Res Lett 11(8):084001
Pettorelli N, Vik JO, Mysterud A, Gaillard J-M, Tucker CJ, Stenseth NC (2005) Using the satellite-derived ndvi to assess ecological responses to environmental change. Trends Ecol Evol 20(9):503–510
pubmed: 16701427
Phillips AJ, Ciannelli L, Brodeur RD, Pearcy WG, Childers J (2014) Spatio-temporal associations of albacore CPUEs in the northeastern Pacific with regional SST and climate environmental variables. ICES J Mar Sci: Journal du Conseil 71(7):1717–1727
Pinzon J, Tucker C (2014) A non-stationary 1981–2012 avhrr ndvi3g time series. Remote Sens 6(8):6929–6960
Post E, Forchhammer MC (2008) Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B: Biol Sci 363(1501):2367–2373
Post E, Forchhammer MC, Bret-Harte MS, Callaghan TV, Christensen TR, Elberling B, Fox AD, Gilg O, Hik DS, Høye TT, Ims RA, Jeppesen E, Klein DR, Madsen J, McGuire AD, Rysgaard S, Schindler DE, Stirling I, Tamstorf MP, Tyler NJC, van der Wal R, Welker J, Wookey PA, Schmidt NM, Aastrup P (2009) Ecological dynamics across the arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 325(5946):1355–1358
pubmed: 19745143
R Core Team (2020) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, v4.0.3 edition
Reimers E (2002) Calving time and foetus growth among wild reindeer in Norway. Rangifer 22(1):61
Roberts DR, Bahn V, Ciuti S, Boyce MS, Elith J, Guillera-Arroita G, Hauenstein S, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Schröder B, Thuiller W, Warton DI, Wintle BA, Hartig F, Dormann CF (2017) Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure. Ecography 40(8):913–929
Sæther B-E (1997) Environmental stochasticity and population dynamics of large herbivores: a search for mechanisms. Trends Ecol Evol 12(4):143–149
pubmed: 21238011
Sala OE, Stuart Chapin III F, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff NL, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287(5459):1770–1774
Serneels S, Lambin EF (2001) Impact of land-use changes on the wildebeest migration in the northern part of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem. J Biogeogr 28(3):391–407
Skogland T (1990) Density dependence in a fluctuating wild reindeer herd; maternal vs. offspring effects. Oecologia 84(4):442–450
pubmed: 28312958
Staton BA, Catalano MJ, Farmer TM, Abebe A, Dobson FS (2017) Development and evaluation of a migration timing forecast model for Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon. Fish Res 194(Supplement C):9–21
Stien A, Ims RA, Albon SD, Fuglei E, Irvine RJ, Ropstad E, Halvorsen O, Langvatn R, Loe LE, Veiberg V, Yoccoz NG (2012) Congruent responses to weather variability in high arctic herbivores. Biol Lett 8(6):1002–1005
pubmed: 23015455
pmcid: 3497145
Tablado Z, Fauchald P, Mabille G, Stien A, Tveraa T (2014) Environmental variation as a driver of predator-prey interactions. Ecosphere 5(12):art164
Tomaszewska MA, Nguyen LH, Henebry GM (2020) Land surface phenology in the highland pastures of montane central asia: Interactions with snow cover seasonality and terrain characteristics. Remote Sens Environ 240:111675
Torabi M (2014) Spatiotemporal modeling of odds of disease. Environmetrics 25(5):341–350
Tucker CJ, Pinzon JE, Brown ME, Slayback DA, Pak EW, Mahoney R, Vermote EF, Saleous NE (2005) An extended avhrr 8-km ndvi dataset compatible with modis and spot vegetation ndvi data. Int J Remote Sens 26(20):4485–4498
Turunen M, Soppela P, Kinnunen H, Sutinen ML, Martz F (2009) Does climate change influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants? Polar Biol 32(6):813–832
Tveraa T, Fauchald P, Henaug C, Yoccoz NG (2003) An examination of a compensatory relationship between food limitation and predation in semi-domestic reindeer. Oecologia 137(3):370–376
pubmed: 12955491
Tveraa T, Fauchald P, Gilles Yoccoz N, Anker Ims R, Aanes R, Arild Høgda K (2007) What regulate and limit reindeer populations in Norway? Oikos 116(4):706–715
Tveraa T, Stien A, Bårdsen B-J, Fauchald P (2013) Population densities, vegetation green-up, and plant productivity: impacts on reproductive success and juvenile body mass in reindeer. PLOS ONE 8(2):1–8
Tveraa T, Stien A, Brøseth H, Yoccoz NG (2014) The role of predation and food limitation on claims for compensation, reindeer demography and population dynamics. J Appl Ecol 51(5):1264–1272
pubmed: 25558085
pmcid: 4279950
Tyler NJC, Forchhammer MC, Øritsland NA (2008) Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer. Ecology 89(6):1675–1686
pubmed: 18589531
van de Pol M, Bailey LD, McLean N, Rijsdijk L, Lawson CR, Brouwer L (2016) Identifying the best climatic predictors in ecology and evolution. Methods Ecol Evol 7(10):1246–1257
Veiberg V, Loe LE, Albon SD, Irvine RJ, Tveraa T, Ropstad E, Stien A (2017) Maternal winter body mass and not spring phenology determine annual calf production in an arctic herbivore. Oikos 126(7):980–987
Vistnes II, Nellemann C, Jordhøy P, Støen O-G (2008) Summer distribution of wild reindeer in relation to human activity and insect stress. Polar Biol 31(11):1307
Weladji RB, Steinheim G, Holand Ø, Moe SR, Almøy T, Ådnøy T (2003) Temporal patterns of juvenile body weight variability in sympatric reindeer and sheep. Annales Zoologici Fennici 40(1):17–26
Wood SN (2006) Generalized additive models. Texts in Statistical Science Series. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL. An introduction with R
Wood SN (2017) Generalized additive models: An Introduction with R. Texts in Statistical Science Series. 2 edn. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL
Wood SN, Pya N, Säfken B (2016) Smoothing parameter and model selection for general smooth models. J Am Stat Assoc 111(516):1548–1563
Woolford DG, Bellhouse DR, Braun WJ, Dean CB, Martell DL, Sun J (2011) A spatio-temporal model for people-caused forest fire occurrence in the Romeo Malette Forest. J Environ Stat 2(1):2–26
Zhao LZ, Colman AS, Irvine RJ, Karlsen SR, Olack G, Hobbie EA (2019) Isotope ecology detects fine-scale variation in svalbard reindeer diet: implications for monitoring herbivory in the changing arctic. Polar Biol 42(4):793–805