Model-based water accounting for integrated assessment of water resources systems at the basin scale.

Agricultural activities in the concept of integrated water resources management play a vital role. Especially in dry and semi-dry regions, agricultural activities have the largest share of water consumption. By employing a model-based approach using modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT agro-hydrological model), this study has prepared Water Accounting Plus (WA+) framework requirements to investigate different conditions of supply and demand in wet (1985-2000) and dry (2001-2015) periods in a semi-dry basin (Karkheh River Basin) in Iran. Our assessments based on WA+ show decreasing 10% (21.65 to 19.29 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)/year) of precipitation in the dry period caused a 4% (0.13 BCM/year) decline in natural evapotranspiration. However, the basin experienced a 24% increment in evapotranspiration from agricultural activities at the same period, and runoff was approximately halved (2.45 BCM/year). Therefore, especially in downstream parts, surface water withdrawal has decreased by 18%. These new conditions have put pressure on groundwater resources. The aquifer extraction and total withdrawal for irrigation have grown by about 17% and 4%, respectively. Finally, it is evident that the manageable water has diminished due to climate change; not only the managed water consumption in the basin has not reduced, but it has also highly risen. The current study results help water authorities arrange new hydrological and climatic conditions strategies.

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Declaration of competing interest We confirm that this paper is an original research and has not been published or presented previously in any journal or conference in any language. The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.