Four scenarios for the future of medicines and social policy in 2030.

Future medicines Future trends Global health Scenario analysis Social policy

Journal

Drug discovery today
ISSN: 1878-5832
Titre abrégé: Drug Discov Today
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9604391

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
08 2022
Historique:
received: 22 11 2021
revised: 22 02 2022
accepted: 25 03 2022
pubmed: 2 4 2022
medline: 22 6 2022
entrez: 1 4 2022
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

The future of medicines is likely determined by an array of scientific, socioeconomic, policy, medical need, and geopolitical factors, with many uncertainties ahead. Here, we report from a scenario project, analyzing various trends, crucial and complex developments in the medicines' space. From a range of 'critical uncertainties' we derived two scenario drivers: global convergence, ranging from very high (trust and solidarity), to very low (fragmented ecosystems); and disease orientation, ranging from public health first to interceptive medicine. This resulted in four contrasting portraits of the future of medicines and social policy: deprioritizing the high-end; sustainable flow; transformative healing; and global divide. All those involved in drug discovery and development can use these for strengthening preparedness for the crucial challenges ahead.

Identifiants

pubmed: 35364271
pii: S1359-6446(22)00128-3
doi: 10.1016/j.drudis.2022.03.018
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Review Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

2252-2260

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Auteurs

Hubert G Leufkens (HG)

Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584CG Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Zuzana Kusynová (Z)

Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584CG Utrecht, the Netherlands; International Pharmaceutical Federation (FIP), Andries Bickerweg 5, 2517 JP The Hague, the Netherlands.

Murray Aitken (M)

IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, 100 IMS Drive, Parsippany, NJ 07054, USA.

Jarno Hoekman (J)

Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584CG Utrecht, the Netherlands; Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Pieter Stolk (P)

Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584CG Utrecht, the Netherlands; Exon Consultancy, Vijzelstraat 68-78, 1017 HL Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Kevin Klein (K)

Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584CG Utrecht, the Netherlands; Exon Consultancy, Vijzelstraat 68-78, 1017 HL Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Aukje K Mantel-Teeuwisse (AK)

Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences (UIPS), Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 99, 3584CG Utrecht, the Netherlands. Electronic address: A.K.Mantel@uu.nl.

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