Four scenarios for the future of medicines and social policy in 2030.
Future medicines
Future trends
Global health
Scenario analysis
Social policy
Journal
Drug discovery today
ISSN: 1878-5832
Titre abrégé: Drug Discov Today
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9604391
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 2022
08 2022
Historique:
received:
22
11
2021
revised:
22
02
2022
accepted:
25
03
2022
pubmed:
2
4
2022
medline:
22
6
2022
entrez:
1
4
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The future of medicines is likely determined by an array of scientific, socioeconomic, policy, medical need, and geopolitical factors, with many uncertainties ahead. Here, we report from a scenario project, analyzing various trends, crucial and complex developments in the medicines' space. From a range of 'critical uncertainties' we derived two scenario drivers: global convergence, ranging from very high (trust and solidarity), to very low (fragmented ecosystems); and disease orientation, ranging from public health first to interceptive medicine. This resulted in four contrasting portraits of the future of medicines and social policy: deprioritizing the high-end; sustainable flow; transformative healing; and global divide. All those involved in drug discovery and development can use these for strengthening preparedness for the crucial challenges ahead.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35364271
pii: S1359-6446(22)00128-3
doi: 10.1016/j.drudis.2022.03.018
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Review
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2252-2260Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.