How do mobility restrictions and social distancing during COVID-19 affect oil price?

Airline complex network Apple mobility trends COVID-19 Extreme value theory Granger causality Oil price Quantile regression

Journal

Journal of statistical theory and practice
ISSN: 1559-8608
Titre abrégé: J Stat Theory Pract
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101513487

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
2022
Historique:
accepted: 08 02 2022
entrez: 5 4 2022
pubmed: 6 4 2022
medline: 6 4 2022
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

This paper provides an analysis of the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the crude oil price. Using a newly developed air mobility index and Apple's driving trends index, we assess the effect of human mobility restrictions and social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic on the crude oil price. We apply a quantile regression model, which evaluates different quantiles of the crude oil price. We also conduct an extreme value modeling, which examines the lower tail of the crude oil price distribution. We find that both the air mobility index and driving trends index significantly influence lower and upper quantiles of the WTI crude oil price. The extreme value models suggest that there is a potential risk of a negative crude oil price for a sudden extreme fall of air mobility.

Identifiants

pubmed: 35378970
doi: 10.1007/s42519-022-00247-x
pii: 247
pmc: PMC8967091
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

22

Informations de copyright

© Grace Scientific Publishing 2022.

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Auteurs

Asim K Dey (AK)

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX USA.
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA.

Kumer P Das (KP)

The Office of Vice President for Research, Innovation, and Economic Development, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA USA.

Classifications MeSH