The impact of COVID-19 vaccines on the Case Fatality Rate: The importance of monitoring breakthrough infections.
Breakthrough Infections
COVID-19
Case Fatality Rate
Vaccine effectiveness
Journal
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
ISSN: 1878-3511
Titre abrégé: Int J Infect Dis
Pays: Canada
ID NLM: 9610933
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jun 2022
Jun 2022
Historique:
received:
22
09
2021
revised:
10
03
2022
accepted:
31
03
2022
pubmed:
11
4
2022
medline:
18
5
2022
entrez:
10
4
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
This study aimed to test the behavior of the case fatality rate (CFR) in a mixed population of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals by illustrating the role of both the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing deaths and the detection of infections among both the vaccinated (breakthrough infections) and unvaccinated individuals. We simulated three hypothetical CFR scenarios that resulted from a different combination of vaccine effectiveness in preventing deaths and the efforts in detecting infections among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. In the presence of vaccines, the CFR depends not only on the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing deaths but also on the detection of breakthrough infections. As a result, a decline in the CFR may not imply that vaccines are effective in reducing deaths. Likewise, a constant CFR can still mean that vaccines are effective in reducing deaths. Unless vaccinated people are also tested for COVID-19 infection, the CFR loses its meaning in tracking the pandemic. This shows that unless efforts are directed at detecting breakthrough infections, it is hard to disentangle the effect of vaccines in reducing deaths from the probability of detecting infections on the CFR.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35398301
pii: S1201-9712(22)00197-7
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.03.059
pmc: PMC8983479
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
178-183Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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