Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040.
extension of working lives
forecasting health
functional limitations
self-rated health
Journal
International journal of environmental research and public health
ISSN: 1660-4601
Titre abrégé: Int J Environ Res Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101238455
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 04 2022
01 04 2022
Historique:
received:
18
01
2022
revised:
23
03
2022
accepted:
28
03
2022
entrez:
12
4
2022
pubmed:
13
4
2022
medline:
14
4
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In many Western countries, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate the extension of working lives. It is not yet well understood whether the health of older adults supports this increase. In this study, future health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 (i.e., the expected state pension age) is explored up to 2040. Data are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey 1990-2017 (N ≈ 10,000 yearly) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor 2016 (N = 205,151). Health is operationalized using combined scores of self-reported health and limitations in mobility, hearing or seeing. Categories are: good, moderate and poor health. Based on historical health trends, two scenarios are explored: a stable health trend (neither improving nor declining) and an improving health trend. In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60-68 is estimated to be 63-71% in good, 17-28% in moderate and 9-12% in poor health. Among women, this is estimated to be 64-69%, 17-24% and 12-14%, respectively. This study's explorations suggest that a substantial share of people will be in moderate or poor health and, thus, may have difficulty continuing working. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will, therefore, remain important, even in the case of the most favorable scenario.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
In many Western countries, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate the extension of working lives. It is not yet well understood whether the health of older adults supports this increase. In this study, future health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 (i.e., the expected state pension age) is explored up to 2040.
METHODS
Data are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey 1990-2017 (N ≈ 10,000 yearly) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor 2016 (N = 205,151). Health is operationalized using combined scores of self-reported health and limitations in mobility, hearing or seeing. Categories are: good, moderate and poor health. Based on historical health trends, two scenarios are explored: a stable health trend (neither improving nor declining) and an improving health trend.
RESULTS
In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60-68 is estimated to be 63-71% in good, 17-28% in moderate and 9-12% in poor health. Among women, this is estimated to be 64-69%, 17-24% and 12-14%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
This study's explorations suggest that a substantial share of people will be in moderate or poor health and, thus, may have difficulty continuing working. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will, therefore, remain important, even in the case of the most favorable scenario.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35409891
pii: ijerph19074209
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19074209
pmc: PMC8998719
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Références
Psychiatry Clin Neurosci. 2020 Apr;74(4):281-282
pubmed: 32034840
Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 1981;29(4):413-9
pubmed: 6461907
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jun 04;16(11):
pubmed: 31167462
Health Rep. 2018 Apr 18;29(4):14-22
pubmed: 29668029
BMC Public Health. 2013 Dec 13;13:1170
pubmed: 24330543
Health Promot J Austr. 2021 Apr 16;:
pubmed: 33864299
Occup Environ Med. 2014 Apr;71(4):295-301
pubmed: 24169931
Occup Environ Med. 2010 Dec;67(12):845-52
pubmed: 20798020
Health Serv Res. 2015 Oct;50(5):1528-49
pubmed: 25655273
Heart Lung. 2020 Nov - Dec;49(6):883-884
pubmed: 32690219
PLoS One. 2015 Aug 31;10(8):e0136583
pubmed: 26323093
Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2021 May-Jun;15(3):869-875
pubmed: 33892403
Soc Sci Med. 2013 Jul;88:18-29
pubmed: 23702206
Front Psychiatry. 2020 May 26;11:489
pubmed: 32574243
Demography. 2013 Apr;50(2):661-71
pubmed: 23104207
Soc Sci Med. 2009 Aug;69(3):307-16
pubmed: 19520474
Scand J Work Environ Health. 2014 Sep;40(5):473-82
pubmed: 24973976
Age Ageing. 2018 May 01;47(3):374-380
pubmed: 29370339
Sci Rep. 2021 Aug 16;11(1):16533
pubmed: 34400713
Int Arch Occup Environ Health. 2015 Jul;88(5):521-32
pubmed: 25118618
Aging Ment Health. 2016;20(5):529-42
pubmed: 25806655
BMC Geriatr. 2016 Dec 1;16(1):205
pubmed: 27908276
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020 Sep 11;69(36):1250-1257
pubmed: 32915166
Obes Facts. 2018;11(5):360-371
pubmed: 30308509
Scand J Work Environ Health. 2019 Jan 1;45(1):73-81
pubmed: 30176168
Am J Public Health. 2010 Jan;100(1):100-7
pubmed: 19910350
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Oct 14;16(20):
pubmed: 31615149
Psychol Med. 2018 Aug;48(11):1824-1834
pubmed: 29198199
BMC Public Health. 2013 Dec 13;13:1180
pubmed: 24330730
Eur J Public Health. 2011 Feb;21(1):81-91
pubmed: 20237171