Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
20 04 2022
20 04 2022
Historique:
received:
03
11
2020
accepted:
07
03
2022
entrez:
21
4
2022
pubmed:
22
4
2022
medline:
23
4
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35444178
doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29613-w
pii: 10.1038/s41467-022-29613-w
pmc: PMC9021229
doi:
Banques de données
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.7m0cfxpwg']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2150Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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