A global comprehensive analysis of ambient low temperature and non-communicable diseases burden during 1990-2019.


Journal

Environmental science and pollution research international
ISSN: 1614-7499
Titre abrégé: Environ Sci Pollut Res Int
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 9441769

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Sep 2022
Historique:
received: 10 11 2021
accepted: 21 04 2022
pubmed: 3 5 2022
medline: 24 9 2022
entrez: 2 5 2022
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Climate change and health are inextricably linked, especially the role of ambient temperature. This study aimed to analyze the non-communicable disease (NCD) burden attributable to low temperature globally, regionally, and temporally using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Globally, in 2019, low temperature was responsible for 5.42% DALY and 7.18% death of NCDs, representing the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and death rates (per 100,000 population) of 359.6 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 306.09, 416.88) and 21.36 (95% UI:18.26, 24.74). Ischemic heart disease was the first leading cause of DALY and death resulting from low temperature, followed by stroke. However, age-standardized DALY and death rates attributable to low temperature have exhibited wide variability across regions, with the highest in Central Asia and Eastern Europe and the lowest in Caribbean and Western sub-Saharan Africa. During the study period (1990-2019), there has been a significant decrease in the burden of NCDs attributable to low temperature, but progress has been uneven across countries, whereas nations exhibiting high sociodemographic index (SDI) declined more significantly compared with low SDI nations. Notably, three nations, including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Lesotho, had the maximum NCDs burden attributed to low temperature and displayed an upward trend. In conclusion, ambient low temperature contributes to substantial NCD burden with notable geographical variations.

Identifiants

pubmed: 35501439
doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-20442-4
pii: 10.1007/s11356-022-20442-4
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

66136-66147

Subventions

Organisme : National Natural Science Foundation of China
ID : 81773518

Informations de copyright

© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

Références

Achebak H, Devolder D, Ballester J (2019) Trends in temperature-related age-specific and sex-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Spain: a national time-series analysis. Lancet Planet Health 3:e297–e306
doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30090-7
Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S (2018) What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments. Environ Int 121:119–129
doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.053
Bhatnagar A (2017) Environmental determinants of cardiovascular disease. Circ Res 121:162–180
doi: 10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.117.306458
Chen RJ, Yin P, Wang LJ, Liu C, Ni Y, Wang WD et al (2018) Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities. BMJ 363:k4306
doi: 10.1136/bmj.k4306
Cheng J, Xu Z, Bambrick H, Su H, Tong S, Hu W (2019) Impacts of exposure to ambient temperature on burden of disease: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence. Int J Biometeorol 63:1099–1115
doi: 10.1007/s00484-019-01716-y
Conlon KC, Rajkovich NB, White-Newsome JL, Larsen L, O’Neill MS (2011) Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate. Maturitas 69:197–202
doi: 10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.04.004
Couser WG, Remuzzi G, Mendis S, Tonelli M (2011) The contribution of chronic kidney disease to the global burden of major noncommunicable diseases. Kidney Int 80:1258–1270
doi: 10.1038/ki.2011.368
Diaz J, Lopez-Bueno JA, Saez M, Miron IJ, Luna MY, Sanchez-Martinez G et al (2019) Will there be cold-related mortality in Spain over the 2021–2050 and 2051–2100 time horizons despite the increase in temperatures as a consequence of climate change? Environ Res 176:108557
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108557
Ding Z, Li LJ, Wei RQ, Dong WY, Guo P, Shaoyi Yang SY et al (2016) Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China
Ebi KL, Mills D (2013) Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment. Wires Clim Change 4:203–212
doi: 10.1002/wcc.211
Friel S, Bowen K, Campbell-Lendrum D, Frumkin H, McMichael AJ, Rasanathan K (2011) Climate change, noncommunicable diseases, and development: the relationships and common policy opportunities. Annu Rev Public Health 32:133–147
doi: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071910-140612
Gasparrini A, Guo YM, Masahiro H, Eric L, Antonella Z, Joel S et al (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 386:369–375
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0
Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Huber V, Tong S et al (2017) Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. Lancet Planet Health 1:e360–e367
doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0
GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators (2020) Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 396:1204–1222
GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators (2020) Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020(396):1223-1249
Ghorbanian A, Jafari AJ, Shahsavani A et al (2020) Quantification of mortality and morbidity in general population of heavily-industrialized city of Abadan: Effect of long-term exposure. Journal of Air Pollution and Health 5:171–180
Guo YM, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Li SS, Tawatsupa B, Tobias A et al (2014) Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation. Epidemiology 25:781–789
doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000165
Hajizadeh Y, Jafari N, Fanaei F et al (2021) Spatial patterns and temporal variations of traffic-related air pollutants and estimating its health effects in Isfahan city. Iran J Environ Health Sci Eng 19:781–791
doi: 10.1007/s40201-021-00645-6
Hu K, Guo Y, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Liu W, See L, Yang X et al (2019) Evidence for urban-rural disparity in temperature-mortality relationships in Zhejiang Province. China Environ Health Perspect 127:37001
doi: 10.1289/EHP3556
Iniguez G, Roye D, Tobias A (2021) Contrasting patterns of temperature related mortality and hospitalization by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in 52 Spanish cities. Environ Res 192:110191
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110191
Jha V, Garcia-Garcia G, Iseki K, Li Z, Naicker S, Plattner B et al (2013) Chronic kidney disease: global dimension and perspectives. Lancet 382:260–72
John MW, Isaac MH, David WJ, Thompson KET, John EW (2014) Global warming and winter weather. Science 343:729–730
doi: 10.1126/science.343.6172.729
Kermani M, Jafaria AJ, Gholami M et al (2020) Investigation of relationship between particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological parameters in Isfahan. Iran J Air Pollut Health 5:97–106
Kermani M, Jafaria AJ, Gholami M et al (2021) Characterisation of PM2.5- bound PAHs in outdoor air of Karaj megacity: the effect of meteorological factors. International Journal of Environmental Analytical Chemistry.
Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ et al (2000) Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Stat Med 19:335–351
doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::AID-SIM336>3.0.CO;2-Z
Lam HCY, Chan JCN, Luk AOY, Chan EYY, Goggins WB (2018) Short-term association between ambient temperature and acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations for diabetes mellitus patients: a time series study. PLoS Med 15:e1002612
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002612
Li G, Li Y, Tian L, Guo Q, Pan X (2018) Future temperature-related years of life lost projections for cardiovascular disease in Tianjin. China Sci Total Environ 630:943–950
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.261
Masato G, Bone A, Charlton-Perez A, Cavany S, Neal R, Dankers R et al (2015) Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships. PLoS ONE 10:e0137804
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0137804
Moghadamnia MT, Ardalan A, Mesdaghinia A, Keshtkar A, Naddafi K, Yekaninejad MS (2017) Ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Peer J 5:e3574
doi: 10.7717/peerj.3574
Murray CJL, Ezzati M, Flaxman AD (2012) The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010: design, definitions, and metrics. Lancet 380:2063–2066
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61899-6
Patrick LK, Joel S, Mathilde P, Elisaveta P, Alain LT, Sylvia M et al (2015) Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits? Environ Res Lett 10(6):064016
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064016
Paul W, Sam P, Ben A, Astrid F, Sari K, Punam M et al (2004) Vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly people in Britain: population based study. BMJ 329:647
doi: 10.1136/bmj.38167.589907.55
Ramon M, Peter LS, Patricia S, Shah E, Enrique V, Pedro O et al (2020) Trends in premature avertable mortality from non-communicable diseases for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a population-based study. Lancet Glob Health 8:e511–e523
doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30035-8
Roth GA, Mensah GA, Johnson CO, Addolorato G, Ammirati E, Baddour LM et al (2020) Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: update from the GBD 2019 Study. J Am Coll Cardiol 76:2982–3021
doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2020.11.010
Ryti NR, Guo Y, Jaakkola JJ (2016) Global association of cold spells and adverse health effects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:12–22
doi: 10.1289/ehp.1408104
Scovronick N, Sera F, Acquaotta F, Garzena D, Fratianni S, Wright CY et al (2018) The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa: A time-series analysis. Environ Res 161:229–235
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.001
Silveira IH, Oliveira BFA, Cortes TR, Junger WL (2019) The effect of ambient temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities. Sci Total Environ 691:996–1004
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.493
Son JY, Gouveia N, Bravo MA, de Freitas CU, Bell ML (2016) The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in Sao Paulo. Brazil Int J Biometeorol 60(1):113–121
doi: 10.1007/s00484-015-1009-7
Sotiris V, Keith D, Shakoor H, Clare H, Bernd E, Anthony JM (2014) Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia. Environ Health Perspect 122:1285–1292
doi: 10.1289/ehp.1307524
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2019) World population prospects 2019: Highlights. New York, NY: United Nations, 2019. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Sera F, Guo Y, Chung Y, Arbuthnott K, Tong S et al (2018) Multicounty analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. Environ Int 111:239–246
doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006
WHO (2018) Time to deliver: report of the WHO Independent High-level Commission on Noncommunicable Diseases. World Health Organization, Geneva
Yan B, Chebana F, Masselot P, Campagna C, Gosselin P, Ouarda T (2020) A cold-health watch and warning system, applied to the province of Quebec (Canada). Sci Total Environ 741:140188
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140188
Yin Q, Wang JF, Ren ZP, Li J, Guo YM (2019) Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change. Nat Commun 10:4640
doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y

Auteurs

Jian Song (J)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.

Wei Qin (W)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Lu'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lu'an, 237000, Anhui, China.

Rubing Pan (R)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.

Weizhuo Yi (W)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.

Shasha Song (S)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.

Jian Cheng (J)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.

Hong Su (H)

Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China. suhong5151@sina.com.
Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China. suhong5151@sina.com.

Articles similaires

[Redispensing of expensive oral anticancer medicines: a practical application].

Lisanne N van Merendonk, Kübra Akgöl, Bastiaan Nuijen
1.00
Humans Antineoplastic Agents Administration, Oral Drug Costs Counterfeit Drugs

Smoking Cessation and Incident Cardiovascular Disease.

Jun Hwan Cho, Seung Yong Shin, Hoseob Kim et al.
1.00
Humans Male Smoking Cessation Cardiovascular Diseases Female
Humans United States Aged Cross-Sectional Studies Medicare Part C
1.00
Humans Yoga Low Back Pain Female Male

Classifications MeSH