The Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever tick vector Hyalomma marginatum in the south of France: Modelling its distribution and determination of factors influencing its establishment in a newly invaded area.

We developed a correlative model at high resolution for predicting the distribution of one of the main vectors of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), Hyalomma marginatum, in a recently colonised area, namely southern France. About 931 H. marginatum adult ticks were sampled on horses from 2016 to 2019 and 2021 in 14 southern French departments, which resulted in the first H. marginatum detection map on a large portion of the national territory. Such updated presence/absence data, as well as the mean number of H. marginatum per examined animal (mean parasitic load) as a proxy of tick abundance, were correlated to multiple parameters describing the climate and habitats characterising each collection site, as well as movements of horses as possible factors influencing tick exposure. In southern France, H. marginatum was likely detected in areas characterised by year-long warm temperatures and low precipitation, especially in summer and mostly concentrated in autumn, as well as moderate annual humidity, compared to other sampled areas. It confirms that even in newly invaded areas this tick remains exclusively Mediterranean and cannot expand outside this climatic range. Regarding the environment, a predominance of open natural habitats, such as sclerophyllous vegetated and sparsely vegetated areas, were also identified as a favourable factor, in opposition to urban or peri-urban and humid habitats, such as continuous urban areas and inland marshes, respectively, which were revealed to be unsuitable. Based on this model, we predicted the areas currently suitable for the establishment of the tick H. marginatum in the South of France, with relatively good accuracy using internal (AUC = 0.66) and external validation methods (AUC = 0.76 and 0.83). Concerning tick abundance, some correlative relationships were similar to the occurrence model, as well as the type of horse movements being highlighted as an important factor explaining mean parasitic load. However, the limitations of estimating and modelling H. marginatum abundance in a correlative model are discussed.

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