Temporal patterns of weekly births and conceptions predicted by meteorology, seasonal variation, and lunar phases.
Annual and lunar cycles
Birth and conception rates
Temperature
Time series study
Vienna
Journal
Wiener klinische Wochenschrift
ISSN: 1613-7671
Titre abrégé: Wien Klin Wochenschr
Pays: Austria
ID NLM: 21620870R
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2022
Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
13
09
2021
accepted:
21
04
2022
pubmed:
25
5
2022
medline:
23
7
2022
entrez:
24
5
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Data reporting the number of births given by women resident in Vienna for each week between 1999 and 2019, and the duration (in weeks) of their pregnancies, were used to estimate the week of conception. When preliminary examinations detected cyclical patterns for births and conceptions, a series of Poisson regressions for births and conceptions were performed to assess whether these cycles could be associated with lunar or solar phases. To that end 2 sine-cosine functions, 1 with a wavelength of 1 year (365.25 days) and 1 with a wavelength of 29.529 days, the latter resembling the average length of a lunar cycle, were constructed. In addition, also average weekly temperatures were included in the models. Same week temperature was a strong non-linear predictor for both births and conceptions. Extreme temperatures, especially hot temperatures, increased the number of births while the numbers of successful conceptions were decreased by extreme temperatures. Regarding annual variation in conceptions, the lowest values were found in May and the highest in late autumn and early winter. Therefore, the highest numbers of births are observed in the summer. As per lunar variations, the highest numbers of conceptions occurred at the full moon and the highest numbers of births at the waxing crescent to first quarter moon. The latter results should be treated with caution, as they are not hypothesis driven. Furthermore, literature reports on this topic are conflicting. Nevertheless, these findings will be useful in further analyses examining air pollution effects.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Data reporting the number of births given by women resident in Vienna for each week between 1999 and 2019, and the duration (in weeks) of their pregnancies, were used to estimate the week of conception. When preliminary examinations detected cyclical patterns for births and conceptions, a series of Poisson regressions for births and conceptions were performed to assess whether these cycles could be associated with lunar or solar phases.
METHODS
METHODS
To that end 2 sine-cosine functions, 1 with a wavelength of 1 year (365.25 days) and 1 with a wavelength of 29.529 days, the latter resembling the average length of a lunar cycle, were constructed. In addition, also average weekly temperatures were included in the models.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Same week temperature was a strong non-linear predictor for both births and conceptions. Extreme temperatures, especially hot temperatures, increased the number of births while the numbers of successful conceptions were decreased by extreme temperatures. Regarding annual variation in conceptions, the lowest values were found in May and the highest in late autumn and early winter. Therefore, the highest numbers of births are observed in the summer. As per lunar variations, the highest numbers of conceptions occurred at the full moon and the highest numbers of births at the waxing crescent to first quarter moon.
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSIONS
The latter results should be treated with caution, as they are not hypothesis driven. Furthermore, literature reports on this topic are conflicting. Nevertheless, these findings will be useful in further analyses examining air pollution effects.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35608674
doi: 10.1007/s00508-022-02038-7
pii: 10.1007/s00508-022-02038-7
pmc: PMC9300502
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
538-545Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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