Mapping Risk of Nipah Virus Transmission from Bats to Humans in Thailand.
Climate change
Ecological niche model
Emerging infectious disease
Lyle’s flying fox
Pteropus lylei
Journal
EcoHealth
ISSN: 1612-9210
Titre abrégé: Ecohealth
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101222144
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2022
06 2022
Historique:
received:
05
03
2021
accepted:
06
05
2022
pubmed:
4
6
2022
medline:
15
7
2022
entrez:
3
6
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus that can pose a serious threat to human and livestock health. Old-world fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) are the natural reservoir hosts for NiV, and Pteropus lylei, Lyle's flying fox, is an important host of NiV in mainland Southeast Asia. NiV can be transmitted from bats to humans directly via bat-contaminated foods (i.e., date palm sap or fruit) or indirectly via livestock or other intermediate animal hosts. Here we construct risk maps for NiV spillover and transmission by combining ecological niche models for the P. lylei bat reservoir with other spatial data related to direct or indirect NiV transmission (livestock density, foodborne sources including fruit production, and human population). We predict the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of P. lylei across Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Our best-fit model predicted that central and western regions of Thailand and small areas in Cambodia are currently the most suitable habitats for P. lylei. However, due to climate change, the species range is predicted to expand to include lower northern, northeastern, eastern, and upper southern Thailand and almost all of Cambodia and lower southern Vietnam. This expansion will create additional risk areas for human infection from P. lylei in Thailand. Our combined predictive risk maps showed that central Thailand, inhabited by 2.3 million people, is considered highly suitable for the zoonotic transmission of NiV from P. lylei. These current and future NiV transmission risk maps can be used to prioritize sites for active virus surveillance and developing awareness and prevention programs to reduce the risk of NiV spillover and spread in Thailand.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35657574
doi: 10.1007/s10393-022-01588-6
pii: 10.1007/s10393-022-01588-6
pmc: PMC10116436
mid: NIHMS1888516
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
175-189Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : U01 AI151797
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© 2022. EcoHealth Alliance.
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