Comparison of performance of varicella vaccines via infectious disease modeling.
Epidemiology
Immunization programs
Prevention and control
Vaccination models
Varicella
Varicella vaccine
Journal
Vaccine
ISSN: 1873-2518
Titre abrégé: Vaccine
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8406899
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
23 06 2022
23 06 2022
Historique:
received:
06
08
2021
revised:
06
04
2022
accepted:
03
05
2022
pubmed:
7
6
2022
medline:
22
6
2022
entrez:
6
6
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Population-level infectious disease models for varicella require vaccine parameters, namely 'take' and 'duration of protection' (defined here as vaccine performance), to quantify the impact of vaccination. Current published models for varicella use vaccine parameters derived from various methodologies which does not allow for the direct comparison of different vaccines. We estimated take and duration of protection using deterministic compartmental models to simulate clinical trials of one- or two-dose varicella vaccination using Varivax® (V-MSD) and Varilrix® (V-GSK). We fit different models to clinical trial data on breakthrough infections and evaluated their respective goodness-of-fit using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Based upon the clinical trial data, we estimated that 90.3% (95% CI: 87.8-92.9%) of the cohort gained permanent protection from breakthrough varicella after the first dose of V-MSD compared to 61.7% (95% CI: 58.2-65.3%) with the first dose of V-GSK. We further estimated that a total of 97.0% (95% CI: 95.2-98.8%) and 93.8% (95% CI: 92.2-95.4%) of the cohort were permanently protected after two-doses of V-MSD and V-GSK, respectively. According to the AIC, our new model (V-MSD AIC = 92.7; V-GSK AIC = 170.3) provided a better fit than an existing model (V-MSD AIC = 108.9; V-GSK AIC = 216.1). The model developed fits the long-term clinical trial data on breakthrough infections for both V-MSD and V-GSK, thus, allowing for the direct comparison of vaccine performance. We estimated that a single dose of V-MSD was more likely to provide permanent protection than a single dose of V-GSK, while the protection offered by two doses was similar for both vaccines.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Population-level infectious disease models for varicella require vaccine parameters, namely 'take' and 'duration of protection' (defined here as vaccine performance), to quantify the impact of vaccination. Current published models for varicella use vaccine parameters derived from various methodologies which does not allow for the direct comparison of different vaccines.
METHODS
We estimated take and duration of protection using deterministic compartmental models to simulate clinical trials of one- or two-dose varicella vaccination using Varivax® (V-MSD) and Varilrix® (V-GSK). We fit different models to clinical trial data on breakthrough infections and evaluated their respective goodness-of-fit using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).
RESULTS
Based upon the clinical trial data, we estimated that 90.3% (95% CI: 87.8-92.9%) of the cohort gained permanent protection from breakthrough varicella after the first dose of V-MSD compared to 61.7% (95% CI: 58.2-65.3%) with the first dose of V-GSK. We further estimated that a total of 97.0% (95% CI: 95.2-98.8%) and 93.8% (95% CI: 92.2-95.4%) of the cohort were permanently protected after two-doses of V-MSD and V-GSK, respectively. According to the AIC, our new model (V-MSD AIC = 92.7; V-GSK AIC = 170.3) provided a better fit than an existing model (V-MSD AIC = 108.9; V-GSK AIC = 216.1).
CONCLUSIONS
The model developed fits the long-term clinical trial data on breakthrough infections for both V-MSD and V-GSK, thus, allowing for the direct comparison of vaccine performance. We estimated that a single dose of V-MSD was more likely to provide permanent protection than a single dose of V-GSK, while the protection offered by two doses was similar for both vaccines.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35660037
pii: S0264-410X(22)00574-6
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.003
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Antigens, Viral
0
Chickenpox Vaccine
0
Vaccines, Attenuated
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
3954-3962Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: This study was funded Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA. M. Pillsbury, M. Pawaskar, SS and CC are employees of Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA and own stock in Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA. Dr. Greenberg is employee of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel and serves as consultant for Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA.