Estimating the basic reproduction number at the beginning of an outbreak.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2022
2022
Historique:
received:
08
07
2021
accepted:
18
05
2022
entrez:
17
6
2022
pubmed:
18
6
2022
medline:
22
6
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We compare several popular methods of estimating the basic reproduction number, R0, focusing on the early stages of an epidemic, and assuming weekly reports of new infecteds. We study the situation when data is generated by one of three standard epidemiological compartmental models: SIR, SEIR, and SEAIR; and examine the sensitivity of the estimators to the model structure. As some methods are developed assuming specific epidemiological models, our work adds a study of their performance in both a well-specified (data generating model and method model are the same) and miss-specified (data generating model and method model differ) settings. We also study R0 estimation using Canadian COVID-19 case report data. In this study we focus on examples of influenza and COVID-19, though the general approach is easily extendable to other scenarios. Our simulation study reveals that some estimation methods tend to work better than others, however, no singular best method was clearly detected. In the discussion, we provide recommendations for practitioners based on our results.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35714080
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269306
pii: PONE-D-21-22343
pmc: PMC9205483
doi:
Types de publication
Case Reports
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0269306Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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