An open-access database of infectious disease transmission trees to explore superspreader epidemiology.
Journal
PLoS biology
ISSN: 1545-7885
Titre abrégé: PLoS Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101183755
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2022
06 2022
Historique:
received:
07
03
2022
accepted:
23
05
2022
revised:
05
07
2022
pubmed:
23
6
2022
medline:
8
7
2022
entrez:
22
6
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Historically, emerging and reemerging infectious diseases have caused large, deadly, and expensive multinational outbreaks. Often outbreak investigations aim to identify who infected whom by reconstructing the outbreak transmission tree, which visualizes transmission between individuals as a network with nodes representing individuals and branches representing transmission from person to person. We compiled a database, called OutbreakTrees, of 382 published, standardized transmission trees consisting of 16 directly transmitted diseases ranging in size from 2 to 286 cases. For each tree and disease, we calculated several key statistics, such as tree size, average number of secondary infections, the dispersion parameter, and the proportion of cases considered superspreaders, and examined how these statistics varied over the course of each outbreak and under different assumptions about the completeness of outbreak investigations. We demonstrated the potential utility of the database through 2 short analyses addressing questions about superspreader epidemiology for a variety of diseases, including Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). First, we found that our transmission trees were consistent with theory predicting that intermediate dispersion parameters give rise to the highest proportion of cases causing superspreading events. Additionally, we investigated patterns in how superspreaders are infected. Across trees with more than 1 superspreader, we found preliminary support for the theory that superspreaders generate other superspreaders. In sum, our findings put the role of superspreading in COVID-19 transmission in perspective with that of other diseases and suggest an approach to further research regarding the generation of superspreaders. These data have been made openly available to encourage reuse and further scientific inquiry.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35731837
doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001685
pii: PBIOLOGY-D-22-00521
pmc: PMC9255728
doi:
Banques de données
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.nk98sf7w7']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e3001685Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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