Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas.


Journal

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
23 06 2022
Historique:
received: 03 12 2021
accepted: 06 06 2022
entrez: 23 6 2022
pubmed: 24 6 2022
medline: 28 6 2022
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Identifiants

pubmed: 35739282
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w
pii: 10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w
pmc: PMC9226159
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

10677

Informations de copyright

© 2022. The Author(s).

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Auteurs

Alexandre K Magnan (AK)

Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI-Sciences Po), Paris, France. alexandre.magnan@iddri.org.
LIENSs Laboratory UMR7266, CNRS & University of La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France. alexandre.magnan@iddri.org.

Michael Oppenheimer (M)

Department of Geosciences and the School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Matthias Garschagen (M)

Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany.

Maya K Buchanan (MK)

Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Virginie K E Duvat (VKE)

LIENSs Laboratory UMR7266, CNRS & University of La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France.

Donald L Forbes (DL)

Natural Resources Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada.

James D Ford (JD)

Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.

Erwin Lambert (E)

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands.

Jan Petzold (J)

Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany.
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.

Fabrice G Renaud (FG)

School of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Glasgow, Dumfries, UK.

Zita Sebesvari (Z)

Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany.

Roderik S W van de Wal (RSW)

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Jochen Hinkel (J)

Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany.
Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany.

Hans-Otto Pörtner (HO)

Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremen, Germany.

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